Altcoins Are In A Dire Situation
Needed to post this update, because this is a very important development in the crypto market. As you can see on this chart, this is the first time alts are below the trendline it broke above in March 2017. In doing so, they have also dropped out of the bullish channel they've been in since December. What does this mean? It means that buyers must bring the altcoin market back above the broken uptrend as soon as possible in order for me to continue having a bullish view of the market. Otherwise, this could mean that the crypto market is about to experience another bearish cycle - and that my bullish view on the market has been incorrect. But this is the important part of analysis. It's not meant to predict what WILL happen in the future, but it allows us to adapt as trends change and try to anticipate possibilities.
This bearish development also means that instead of going sideways and consolidating, Bitcoin could retest some nasty low levels as well. This could sent alts down to new lows (even towards the 20B market cap zone indicated by the red X). This means that $40-$50 ETH is in the cards. I'm just throwing this out there because it IS possible. This is an objectively bearish development in the chart. If you've been following me, you'll know that these are the main trendlines I'm looking at with altcoins. I've been trying to keep my analysis very simple. Essentially alts are bullish above the trend and bearish below it. For the first time since March 2017, alts are below this trendline.
What I would like to see, if we're going to see an alt cycle (at all), is for alts to get back above that trendline as soon as possible. Even though being a contrarian in this market can be rewarding, I don't think I'd personally buy until it gets back above that trendline and holds. This could still be a fakeout to the downside before a true impulse up, but this is an objectively bearish development, so it would be silly for me to present only the bullish scenario. If they can get back above the bullish trendline, I think they could try to target the top of the channel again.
Here it is zoomed in:
This is not financial advice (for educational purposes only). I'm just posting this as an update because things have changed in the market, and I'm curious to see how it all plays out.
-Victor Cobra
This bearish development also means that instead of going sideways and consolidating, Bitcoin could retest some nasty low levels as well. This could sent alts down to new lows (even towards the 20B market cap zone indicated by the red X). This means that $40-$50 ETH is in the cards. I'm just throwing this out there because it IS possible. This is an objectively bearish development in the chart. If you've been following me, you'll know that these are the main trendlines I'm looking at with altcoins. I've been trying to keep my analysis very simple. Essentially alts are bullish above the trend and bearish below it. For the first time since March 2017, alts are below this trendline.
What I would like to see, if we're going to see an alt cycle (at all), is for alts to get back above that trendline as soon as possible. Even though being a contrarian in this market can be rewarding, I don't think I'd personally buy until it gets back above that trendline and holds. This could still be a fakeout to the downside before a true impulse up, but this is an objectively bearish development, so it would be silly for me to present only the bullish scenario. If they can get back above the bullish trendline, I think they could try to target the top of the channel again.
Here it is zoomed in:
This is not financial advice (for educational purposes only). I'm just posting this as an update because things have changed in the market, and I'm curious to see how it all plays out.
-Victor Cobra
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What I'd also prefer to see in this situation is if even with this breakdown, alts can at least drift sideways and NOT make new lows. This also means that altcoin holders may have to be even more patient during the coming months.
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Realized I forgot to include the lower trendline for alts. This would still be a significant drop if it were reached, but it shows that the long term uptrend is still intact.
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Continuing to fall on rising volume. Doesn't look good, but you never know with this market. Things often look the worst before they get better. After the dotcom bubble crash, many assets never recovered. But some of the ones that made it actually retested their extreme lows before finally moving up. Always good to keep things in perspective.
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Seeing some pretty decent recovery today! As I talk about on my most recent video, ETH has held channel support, and alts are starting to look primed for some sort of recovery. IF this was a fakeout dump, I'd expect some massive rallies for alts within the next few days. There is a lot of time for this weekly candle to close bullish. I also speculate that from here on out (if we are continuing the bullish trend for the market), buying alts will yield higher returns than Bitcoin.
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Oof.
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ETH breaking below channel support. Next horizontal area is around $180-184
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Total crypto market cap is still in the bullish channel, and this pullback actually looks quite healthy, when viewed from this perspective, although Bitcoin dominance isn't ideal for altcoin holders like me.
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Alts also have indeed broken out of a channel before and continued up. The break of the channel is not the most bearish indicator ever, unless we continue to drop from here.
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New altcoin analysis:
