Altcoin Total Market Cap (excluding BTC) with Fed Res Balance Sh

📈 BULLISH BIAS

My Strong Bias Based on This Chart:

Altcoins are setting up for a massive macro breakout sometime after QT ends, likely aligning with 2025/2026 liquidity expansion.

✔ Ascending triangle at macro scale
✔ Higher lows for 3+ years
✔ Liquidity cycle bottoming
✔ Historical repeatability
✔ Market cap still below all-time-high resistance

This is a textbook accumulation → expansion setup.

Bullish Scenario

If the pattern breaks the 1.6–1.8T resistance:

Altcoin market cap could rise to 3–4T in the next macro wave

Strongest rallies likely in high-beta alts (Layer 1s, AI, RWA, gaming, DePIN)

📌 This aligns with the historical 2–3× expansions after QT ends.

Timing:

This chart places the next projected end of QT around Dec 2025, aligning with:

Falling inflation

Slowing economy

Future liquidity cycle turning

Expected rate cuts cycle (market pricing 2025 pivot)

This adds macro confirmation to a bullish thesis.


📉 Bearish Scenario (Risk Factors)

A bearish shift happens if:

Macro conditions worsen dramatically

Fed delays the liquidity pivot

Breaks the ascending support (~1.1T)

This would push altcoins into a deeper consolidation.

But based on liquidity trends, this is less likely.

🎯 Final Bias

The chart is strongly bullish.
Altcoins are compressing inside a macro ascending triangle, and historical patterns show a massive bull run begins when QT ends. My projection for a Dec 2025–2026 altcoin explosion is highly aligned with macro liquidity cycles.

This is one of the strongest macro setups for altcoins we’ve had in years.