TQQQ 6/26/2023
已更新
Keeping it simple
TQQQ Multi-time frame analysis
Daily chart – Long term
Pretty clean straight forward chart. In this one we can see the different stages of the market.
After topping out in Aug. ’18, price entered a “sideways” market between Aug.’18 – May’20. The “sideways” market was deemed an Accumulation stage after price broke upwards and entered Uptrend.
In May’20, price entered its Uptrend after breaking out of an Accumulation stage. During this time, you can see price respect the 200ema the whole way.
The Uptrend ran between May ’20 thru Nov.’21. After topping out Nov.’21, price starts to move sideways until it breaks below 200ema Jan.’22. This breakdown deemed the “sideways” market as a Distribution stage and confirms the start of the Downtrend.
Price has been in a Downtrend since and continues to make lower highs and lower lows. Facts that can’t be argued.
The price slide continued until it reached the breakout point of May’20. At this level it found support and bounced breaking above the 200ema and breaking above resistance and previous lower high.
Does this mean the Downtrend is over? Absolutely not. Why? This is the 1st time the previous lower high has been tested.
I will now look at some indicators to provide further confirmation.
The Stochastic indicator - has been Overbought for a while and it’s coming down while being at a resistance level. Bearish.
The MACD indicator - is crossing below its signal while price is at a resistance level. Bearish
Price rejection/ false breakout – Price was above the previous lower high price(Resistance) but has now fallen below it. This is very bearish as price is rejecting higher prices.
So currently we have the following: Downtrend + Oversold stochastic + Macd under signal + Price rejection
This equals to a high probability short trade. I will zoom into 15min chart for entry.
15min chart – Short term
Here we can get a closer look at what’s going on short term.
Price has been on an Uptrend (respecting 200ema) since May 5, ’23 and topped out June 15th 2023.
Here we can see the “Price rejection” we saw on the Daily chart and its a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern in the 15min chart!
As you can see, the neckline has been broken to confirm the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
Entering trade short.
Entry: 37.30
Stop loss: 41.05, -10.05%
Target #1: 27.70, +25.75%, 2.56 RR ratio
Target #2: 17.67, +52.63%, 5.23 RR ratio
TQQQ Multi-time frame analysis
Daily chart – Long term
Pretty clean straight forward chart. In this one we can see the different stages of the market.
After topping out in Aug. ’18, price entered a “sideways” market between Aug.’18 – May’20. The “sideways” market was deemed an Accumulation stage after price broke upwards and entered Uptrend.
In May’20, price entered its Uptrend after breaking out of an Accumulation stage. During this time, you can see price respect the 200ema the whole way.
The Uptrend ran between May ’20 thru Nov.’21. After topping out Nov.’21, price starts to move sideways until it breaks below 200ema Jan.’22. This breakdown deemed the “sideways” market as a Distribution stage and confirms the start of the Downtrend.
Price has been in a Downtrend since and continues to make lower highs and lower lows. Facts that can’t be argued.
The price slide continued until it reached the breakout point of May’20. At this level it found support and bounced breaking above the 200ema and breaking above resistance and previous lower high.
Does this mean the Downtrend is over? Absolutely not. Why? This is the 1st time the previous lower high has been tested.
I will now look at some indicators to provide further confirmation.
The Stochastic indicator - has been Overbought for a while and it’s coming down while being at a resistance level. Bearish.
The MACD indicator - is crossing below its signal while price is at a resistance level. Bearish
Price rejection/ false breakout – Price was above the previous lower high price(Resistance) but has now fallen below it. This is very bearish as price is rejecting higher prices.
So currently we have the following: Downtrend + Oversold stochastic + Macd under signal + Price rejection
This equals to a high probability short trade. I will zoom into 15min chart for entry.
15min chart – Short term
Here we can get a closer look at what’s going on short term.
Price has been on an Uptrend (respecting 200ema) since May 5, ’23 and topped out June 15th 2023.
Here we can see the “Price rejection” we saw on the Daily chart and its a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern in the 15min chart!
As you can see, the neckline has been broken to confirm the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.
Entering trade short.
Entry: 37.30
Stop loss: 41.05, -10.05%
Target #1: 27.70, +25.75%, 2.56 RR ratio
Target #2: 17.67, +52.63%, 5.23 RR ratio
交易开始
交易结束：到达止损
Stop loss: 41.05, -10.05% on 7/13交易开始
8/16Reentry: 37.30
Stop loss: 43.56 (-16.78%)
Target #1: 27.70 (+25.74%), RR ratio 1.53
Target #2: 17.67 (+52.63%), RR ratio 3.14
交易结束：到达止损
Stop loss: 43.56 (-16.78%)
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