Analyzing Tesla: Bubble or Reality?

Without a doubt, Tesla is one of the companies of the S&P 500 that raises more expectations, and it does it for both good and bad.

Many of its detractors consider it a bubble, either because of the demanding ratios it quotes (P/E of 376, P/B of 28 or P/FCF of 75), because of a rather mouthy CEO, or recently because of the increasingly strong competition in the sector; from the brands known to all, in the process of electrification (Volkswagen Group (VWAGY), BMW (BMWYY), Mercedes-Benz de Daimler AG (DDAIF), General Motors (GM) or Ford (F)), as the new automotive companies that are strongly pointing in this direction (Nio (NIO), Xpeng (XPEV) or Li Auto (LI)), without forgetting the problem of the shortage of microchips.

On the other hand, the lovers of the brand defend Tesla as a pioneer in this type of technology, with a groundbreaking business model whose figures also accompany, and is that in the last quarter have broken record production, deliveries and net revenue. Nor can we forget Elon Musk, who, no matter how much controversy he generates, is a true genius.

No wonder the indecision generated even for Bloomberg analysts who follow the brand, in which 34.7% recommend buying, 33.6% maintain, and the remaining 31.7% sell.

Some key facts about Tesla:

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On a technical level, Tesla has been on an uptrend since May 19. We can find stands in the bullish trend line and the previous stands are at 591 dollars and at 540 dollars approximately. The resistances that Tesla will have to overcome are in the 780 dollars approximately and in the historical maximum of January 26 located in the 896.43 dollars per action, still has a distance of 25.04%.

In 2020, Tesla’s shares rose by more than 726% and in 2021 have fallen by 0.73%. ARK Investment last year estimated that in 2024 the share price would reach $7,000 per share, or $1,400 per split of 5 per share. According to their updated research, they now put Tesla at $3,000 in 2025.

Speaking of the Tesla bears, we should highlight Michael Burry, one of the most famous investors in history and famous for being among the first to alert and benefit from the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. In a presentation to the SEC, the SEC has revealed a short-term position against Tesla worth more than 534 million.

On 31 March, Burry held 8,001 sales contracts, with unknown value, exercise price or maturity. From March 31 until now the price of Tesla shares has risen by 12.42%. We have no further information on Burry’s bearish bet.

What is your opinion about Tesla, bubble or reality?

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