It's been in play for about 2 months now, so this is a pretty extended accumulation pattern and I expect a few more bounces before this wedge resolves. It could resolve at any point from about where we're sitting now. I feel confident enough to play these bounces in my own options trading using May 14 calls and puts.
If you want to be a bit more conservative, I would wait for the bounce to 45 and go short from there with a very tight stop around 47 (indicating a breakout from the pattern). If you want to be *really* conservative and have the patience, you could sit on this until we reach 41.50 or so to go long with your stop at $38 to minimize loss. If it decides to play out the entire apex before breaking out, it can go as low as 38.78 before this pattern would no longer be in play. If the delay till apex happens, it may take much longer to go higher as it retests those support lines. If we break and hold below $38.78, there is no floor to support us.
Lots of "if's" and "in case's" here, but that's technicals for you. This is a definite pattern and one of my favorites because it tends to play out so predictably, but there's always the chance the market might tank. Keep your stops tight and watch the levels.
If you want to be a bit more conservative, I would wait for the bounce to 45 and go short from there with a very tight stop around 47 (indicating a breakout from the pattern). If you want to be *really* conservative and have the patience, you could sit on this until we reach 41.50 or so to go long with your stop at $38 to minimize loss. If it decides to play out the entire apex before breaking out, it can go as low as 38.78 before this pattern would no longer be in play. If the delay till apex happens, it may take much longer to go higher as it retests those support lines. If we break and hold below $38.78, there is no floor to support us.
Lots of "if's" and "in case's" here, but that's technicals for you. This is a definite pattern and one of my favorites because it tends to play out so predictably, but there's always the chance the market might tank. Keep your stops tight and watch the levels.