Typically a , like we've seen in 2015 with oil , at the END of a trend is a nice signal to be a euphoric finish. Couple that with Brent oil hitting parity with WTI.
Fundamentally I just don't see long term how oil can remain cheap, with it being a scarce commodity and China still growing every day. Will the bottom form in 2016? Or will we have another few years of bear\chop market before the resumes.
Below chart is the oil to gold ratio. Much more clear 3 drives, then breakdown. Hopefully will see resolution by summer. Mid-term target would be back into the 50's to the previous horizontal resistance we formed in May.
Here we have a daily look... I see us continuing to range from $35 to $38 until the trendline is broken. Then it's off to $50\60.
We have finally let bulls take profit and retraced back into a buying zone. Strong bidding infront of $35 where the rising wedge finally broke out and the real recovery began.
If this is truly bullish, expect stopruns and manipulation around that area but we should not close below $35. Consolidate, then push back up to $60
Still expecting eventual bounce to $60's, next week will show us if we are going to go there straight away or if we will chop around in the high $30's and consolidate before going there.
Won't be interested in re-entry until at least a retest of $35 like my previous idea. Will wait for broader macro-outlook to change.
So we'll see over time. I think $25 is a generational bottom in oil, I think it is highly unlikely to see it go lower or even spend much time down there. Purely TA view, I don't take any fundamental things into mind because their effect is already expressed into the chart by all the market participants. And that's just how I roll lol