The longterm trend in oil is weak, Gov bond around ATL signaling low inflation/low growth.
12 dollar would be a retest of the 1999 low, and a new millennial bottom.
You could also argue that the worst is over in oil and tripple bottom is in play at 20.
Or we hit 50 dollar and the longterm trend has turn for now.
Probabillity leaning towards the downside since we are in a downtrend 60/40
if more downside, target would be at 23 and 20, but with an "option" of 12 dollar
What do you think?
12 dollar would be a retest of the 1999 low, and a new millennial bottom.
You could also argue that the worst is over in oil and tripple bottom is in play at 20.
Or we hit 50 dollar and the longterm trend has turn for now.
Probabillity leaning towards the downside since we are in a downtrend 60/40
if more downside, target would be at 23 and 20, but with an "option" of 12 dollar
What do you think?
评论:
short WTI at 34, good risk reward for downside if we keep tempo. Tempo is key in this trade, dont want to break trendline on the upside, stop at 37 atm, target 1 26-28, target 2 23-20