UNG Natural Gas ( Unleveraged) ETF Long

2023年6月9日

On the 4 hour chart- UNG had a head and shoulder pattern in May from which it descended

in a gradual fashion from May 25 to June 2nd and then reversed upward. The reversal occurred

at two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP and so deep in the oversold

area. Price has crossed over the higher VWAP line and so is in the band between the mean VWAP

and one standard deviation below it. Volumes have been persistent. Importantly, the zero

lag MACD shows the lines in parallel and crossing the zero horizontal line from underneath.

I see UNG properly set up for a long trade. Fundamentally, the hot summer may bring

increased natural gas consumption to make electricity for air conditioning. The dam disaster

in Ukraine may close down the biggest nuclear plant in Europe because of cooling

lakes potentially compromised. Natural gas may be an alternative fuel to make electricity.

Compressed NG from the US may become more important to Europe, especially since the

Nordic Stream pipeline issue developed. All in all, I think natural gas prices are likely to rise.

2023年6月9日

交易开始

My first target is 6.85 midway between the POC and the mean anchored VWAP line. The final target is 7.35 which is the pivot highs of March and April.

2023年6月18日

交易开始

Partial profit taken as XNGUSD had considerable momentum at the first target. Final target for 2/3 of the position is raised to 7.5