Hello I am the Cafe Trader.
There have been some wild days, and it's not over. Amidst all the stormy seas, and the major successes, I wanted to bring to your attention a stock that I think is becoming of great value.
UPS has been getting beat down for over three years, why?
Beatdown
- Trump Tariffs contributing to China slowdown. (35% of deliveries comes from China).
- Guidance downgraded due to uncertainties with the macroglobal scale, "spooking investors".
- UPS cutback dealings with amazon to increase profitablity (but also reducing volume and revenue.)
Just to name a few...
If such bad news, why buy?
Fundamentally their business model is strong, and the dividend is PAYING.
Dividends and Warren Buffett.
Buffett is still known to use a model by his mentor, Benjamin Graham. (if you don't know, take a little youtube shallow dive).
This has been used to build a large portion of how buffet evaluates a stock. Using his formula, the Maximum intrinsic value of UPS is $69.87
As of writing this article, UPS sits roughly 21% higher than that number. If we get close, even the fundamentalists may have a hard time passing this up.
Dividends
At 1.68 Dividend a quarter, that put's UPS at almost 7.91% yield!
So my thought process is; even if you lose 8% from Graham's buy price, you make up on the dividend in a year. (although I would be surprised if it touched that golden zone).
TLDR LONG TERM
Aggressive buy: $88 (we are below that right now)
Great Price: $75.50 - 80.50
Graham's STEAL: $71 or Below.
NOTE: Graham took other things about a stock into consideration as we, as you should as an investor. This article is meant to assist your own DD.
-Since this is charted on a weekly chart I have charted a probable 4-6 month swing. (almost 50% gain).
-It really does depend on where this bounces, we have already broke through some major levels.
-I have a feeling UPS drivers might be cashing out their 401k and panic selling.
That's all for UPS!
I hope you enjoyed the article, thank you for your time.
If you enjoyed please consider a follow and a boost!
thecafetrader
There have been some wild days, and it's not over. Amidst all the stormy seas, and the major successes, I wanted to bring to your attention a stock that I think is becoming of great value.
UPS has been getting beat down for over three years, why?
Beatdown
- Trump Tariffs contributing to China slowdown. (35% of deliveries comes from China).
- Guidance downgraded due to uncertainties with the macroglobal scale, "spooking investors".
- UPS cutback dealings with amazon to increase profitablity (but also reducing volume and revenue.)
Just to name a few...
If such bad news, why buy?
Fundamentally their business model is strong, and the dividend is PAYING.
Dividends and Warren Buffett.
Buffett is still known to use a model by his mentor, Benjamin Graham. (if you don't know, take a little youtube shallow dive).
This has been used to build a large portion of how buffet evaluates a stock. Using his formula, the Maximum intrinsic value of UPS is $69.87
As of writing this article, UPS sits roughly 21% higher than that number. If we get close, even the fundamentalists may have a hard time passing this up.
Dividends
At 1.68 Dividend a quarter, that put's UPS at almost 7.91% yield!
So my thought process is; even if you lose 8% from Graham's buy price, you make up on the dividend in a year. (although I would be surprised if it touched that golden zone).
TLDR LONG TERM
Aggressive buy: $88 (we are below that right now)
Great Price: $75.50 - 80.50
Graham's STEAL: $71 or Below.
NOTE: Graham took other things about a stock into consideration as we, as you should as an investor. This article is meant to assist your own DD.
-Since this is charted on a weekly chart I have charted a probable 4-6 month swing. (almost 50% gain).
-It really does depend on where this bounces, we have already broke through some major levels.
-I have a feeling UPS drivers might be cashing out their 401k and panic selling.
That's all for UPS!
I hope you enjoyed the article, thank you for your time.
If you enjoyed please consider a follow and a boost!
thecafetrader
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免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。