No signs of a turn in 2yr US Bond Yields
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Here we are tracking the final chapter in Wave IV, having cratered through the 61.8% retracement of the 2016/19 uptrend the next level to track is 1.24%. I expect losses will be capped below here to keep broader risks from cascading out of control. Whilst to the topside, resistance can be found at 1.96%, a previous corrective high.
Markets have cornered the Fed, banks are hoarding funds which is leading to a Dollar liquidity shortage and the only way to avoid further spikes in overnight rates is by increasing excess reserves (pushing Dollar supply higher). If they do not bow down to markets (unexpected with Trump still pulling the strings) the decline we are seeing in equities will accelerate and send shockwaves through risk markets.
Best of luck all those positioning for the late cycle flows.
Markets have cornered the Fed, banks are hoarding funds which is leading to a Dollar liquidity shortage and the only way to avoid further spikes in overnight rates is by increasing excess reserves (pushing Dollar supply higher). If they do not bow down to markets (unexpected with Trump still pulling the strings) the decline we are seeing in equities will accelerate and send shockwaves through risk markets.
Best of luck all those positioning for the late cycle flows.
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