Yields are Yelling: Recession is coming

It looks like we are turning over.
Coupled with gigantic short positioning of speculators on bonds (highest in history bsed on the COT Data), the chart indicates that yields will fall again.
Why would they fall?
Because of a flight to saftey and/or a recession.
I am keeping it very simple, I just buy Bonds via ETF. I am long TLT, IEF and SHY.
With that trade, I am also long USD, since my native currency is EUR.
If we have a weekly close above 3,5% on the US10Y, I will exit my positions.
It might also be lucrative to go short stocks now, but I wont do that too much.
This might be a great trade, but I am viewing it as a set up for an even better one.
We might get a great opportunity to buy stocks soon.

评论:

We had multiple weekly closes above 3.5% and I havent touched the IEF since, but if we close below 3.5% on a weekly basis I am buying Bonds with both hands.
Its just gonna be my trigger, since I still see the recession coming.