Odd Coincidence + Piggish Peg = Potential Precision

2020年5月28日

Basically stumbled upon a sequence of daily candles from June/July 2019 that looked identical to the 30-minute chart I was watching last night. I never use this timeframe and I also don't love watching tape until 1 AM, but today is an important day in terms of next month's direction.

Conclusion: See comments below for evidence, or simply wait and see if my Pig-Peg is right during the first two hours of trading. Recommend using it to trade the rest of the day, if so.

More importantly, If it turns out a near-exact resemblance, then that would provide empirical evidence for a very interesting concept about markets: that the S&P 500 Index is not only self-similar (for example, typically during a retracement of a pre-established area) but that when it does exhibit self-similarity on different timeframes (i.e. the Daily Chart at 3000 in 2019 is self-similar to current price movement at 3000), that it goes through the same sequence exact sequence at a [predetermined] accelerated pace.

Initial Thoughts if this Concept Backtests and Holds:
- Current 30-Min vs. 2019 Daily equates to a 48x decrease in the time it takes to complete the same sequence
- It is fair to posit that this particular instance is likely the largest timeframe differential in history because of how recently we crossed the 3000 threshold
- A fair example question would be "Does the time between newly established areas and retracement of a said area affect the time it takes to complete a given sequence"
- There are many other implications worth exploring and many other difficult questions that arise if this evidence holds up in any capacity
- It's not completely mind-blowing if you fully embrace the concept of fractals and harmonic price movements

Bottom Line: Nothing is proven until it is backtested, but feel that I have to share this publically in case it does have greater meaning.

On a less scientific note, if the Pig-Peg ties out, some serious cake can be made in the near future.

Let me know what you think and godspeed.

- The People's Pig

2020年5月28日

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See Summary at the End to Save Additional 10 Seconds of Thinking

2020年5月28日

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2020年5月29日

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Alright, alright, just what on Earth transpired today? Reviewing the tape and chart, there is only one main conclusion that stands out: the FBR has now crossed the point of reasonable interference. I have created a quick chart denoting exactly when the FED interfered yesterday and the subsequent deadweight loss incurred in terms of trading hours and expected resultant downward price movement tomorrow. See comment below for more details:

2020年5月29日

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invst.ly/qyop9

2020年5月29日

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I will make an entirely new post this weekend with an interactive chart. But wanted to share a brief overview of thoughts with the likers of this message, since everyone here is clearly accomplished, quite experienced and probably appreciates the intellectual side of things, especially when the tape closes and your follower's questions answered (don't know how ya'll are able to handle that and trade).

I'll keep this as brief as possible:

It is my documented understanding that mass psychology will dictate price movement, all else equal. It is my theory that patterns are predetermined and will always tend towards an intended position regardless of exogenous noise, such as news, president, virus, etc. Thus, any de facto shift leading to "delays" in the overall path is a result of direct government intervention, which then violates a key assumption of free markets. I noticed five separate incidents of unusually high buying volume at times that seemed obviously illogical given the relative chart positions.

What was the result of this intervention? A ton of dead-weight loss in terms of trading hours and absolutely nothing else. End of the day, the market started what it wanted to start on the button, albeit delayed several hours. This is bad because tomorrow's move down will be more violent than it "should" be, which may lead to more intervention/nonsense. We even might see an example where the government directly ruins a perfectly-good bullish trend.

Worst case: extended periods of sideways trading and extreme, persistent periods of irritation across the board

Best Case: FED intervention tries to offset the additional downward violence it caused today and my Pig-Pegs both hit 😁

Till next time,

- Perma Pig