SP500 - big picture update

2022年8月22日

‘’If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it's probably not a chicken...’’

The boss is telling me to sell.

I sold.

Investors – especially growth oriented – have been hit quite hard this year.

I am no exception.

ARK funds are no exception.

It’s hard to be an investor this year.

We have to trade and manage the portfolio more actively.

Luckily, I am doing it full-time now.

There are always individual stories of course…

OXY?

Now, I have bet my own money and investors’ money on further US market decline.

This is what the boss told me to do.

Maybe the area around 3650 was a historical bottom for many years and we’ll never see this price zone again.

At the time of writing, I hardly doubt it, but things are changing fast…

Market participants are now pricing a 75 bp increase at September meeting with a 56,5% chance (on Friday it was less than 50%)

What will Mr. Powell say on Jackson hole symposium this week?

What is going to be the inflation number?

Are we going to see another crazy risk-on rally at some point?

Yes. Definitely. Not now though, not yet. I think.

I will make sure that we participate in this rally, but first let’s see some US dollar weakening…

Money is still expensive…

Is it going to be cheaper?

What else besides printing money and raising interest rates central bankers around the world can do?

You tell me…

My base case scenario in terms of SP500 is at least 3800… it is a minimum for a possible C wave.

Risking roughly 2% of capital with 3 instruments:

SQQQ SPXU UVXY

“12 years at school, 8 years at the university and all I needed to do was learn how to draw a horizontal line…”