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USD / CAD - Pin bar Signal - SHORT

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I've been waiting for this pair to arrive back at the 61.8% fib level @1.315 and it appears I'm not the only one, the price was rejected with a nice long pin bar @1.305 a lovely bearish signal, especially when combined with a major confluence zone and divergence on reducing volume.

I don't like selling against CAD right now with Oil prices on the decline, but not for Canadian Crude, which had bumper news this week adding some strength to the recently weak currency and the DXY still looking short-term bearish while it builds strength to break the recent highs.

交易开始

@1.30500

注释

The pair have pulled back and formed a pin, time for another entry

注释

I'll post the long-term analysis on this pair in another idea, which is the reason I went short on this pair, even though I'm bullish, it's been a bull for 5 years.

I've sold from the pin bar (red box) rejecting the highs of this ascending wedge (potential reversal pattern), we've now had a beautiful move down overnight, broken the previous close (was acting as support) and now we're sitting at resistance which has acted as support for the rising channel, if we break through that, I think we will for many reasons (falling DXY faster than WTI), then move A will occur to the edge of the wedge. Let's see how it progresses.

注释

We have both Canadian Trade Balance 13:30 (London) and the Crude report at 17:00, more potential to continue on a bearish track before those reports. The Crude numbers will be the big mover.

注释

Beautiful move down after some positive Trade deficit numbers, we're now at the bottom of the ascending wedge, will wait for a second touch and take profits if it looks like the bulls are coming back in.

交易结束：到达目标

Executed the down plan perfectly, closed the trade 1 minute before the Oil inventory, taking profits on the second touch of support, bought back-up with a tight stop and locked in the bullish trade to break even, free money, and sold WTI down 4 hours before the bearish spike hitting my 64.4 target.

Wiped out a week full of losses....

注释

Taken the uptrend profits and added another short, I also have a short up at 1.304 from the original trade... divergence on the chart! 15m is short term!

注释

If you're making lots of trades per day and risking more than a few % of your trading account on each trade, and trading lots of the same pairs all the time, your not trading, your gambling and badly. That maximum I ever trade is 5% of my entire trading account and that's to the top of my stop loss and that's only if the set-up is a 5 star, I may do that once a week if I'm lucky, it's normally closer to 1-3%

Don't trade to just be in the market in the hope of catching a move down or up, against this is gambling and not trading. Set your position size based on where the stops are relative to the previous structure.

If you're a total beginner trading with real money just following other traders, firstly you are crazy, secondly, I wouldn't trade more than 0.25% in that instance, if I was happy just following others, always do your own analysis and within your own trading plan / account management.

注释

80% Profits taken at 1.3