There are several reasons why we could see a bullish move in the USD/CAD currency pair:
1. **Moderating Canadian Inflation**: Multiple sources, including RBC Economics, NBF, and CIBC, suggest that Canadian inflation is expected to moderate in November. This is primarily driven by factors like a drop in gasoline prices, easing food price growth, and a slowdown in core inflation measures. A moderation in inflation can weaken the Canadian dollar (CAD) as it reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, potentially leading to a bullish move in USD/CAD.
2. **Headline CPI within Target Range**: RBC Economics points out that the expected drop in inflation would bring the headline CPI back within the Bank of Canada's target range of 1%-3%. This suggests that there may not be excessive inflationary pressures, which can be interpreted as a positive for USD/CAD bulls.
3. **Economic Backdrop and Interest Rates**: The analysis mentions that further softening in the economic backdrop and slower price growth should reinforce the idea that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to hike interest rates further in the near term. This anticipation of a pause in rate hikes can weigh on the CAD, making USD/CAD more attractive to traders.
4. **Core Inflation Deceleration**: The expectation of continued deceleration in core inflation measures, such as CPI-trim and CPI-median, indicates that underlying inflationary pressures may not be a concern. This can weaken the CAD and support a bullish move in USD/CAD.
5. **Caution Regarding Rate Cuts**: It's worth noting that the central banks, including the Bank of Canada, are expected to be cautious about declaring victory over inflation too early and pivoting to rate cuts. However, the anticipation of an extended pause in rate hikes rather than an immediate pivot to rate cuts can be seen as a positive factor for USD/CAD bulls.
In conclusion, the expected moderation in Canadian inflation, the potential return of headline CPI within the target range, the economic backdrop, and the likelihood of a pause in rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, along with continued core inflation deceleration, are factors that could support a bullish move in USD/CAD.
1. **Moderating Canadian Inflation**: Multiple sources, including RBC Economics, NBF, and CIBC, suggest that Canadian inflation is expected to moderate in November. This is primarily driven by factors like a drop in gasoline prices, easing food price growth, and a slowdown in core inflation measures. A moderation in inflation can weaken the Canadian dollar (CAD) as it reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, potentially leading to a bullish move in USD/CAD.
2. **Headline CPI within Target Range**: RBC Economics points out that the expected drop in inflation would bring the headline CPI back within the Bank of Canada's target range of 1%-3%. This suggests that there may not be excessive inflationary pressures, which can be interpreted as a positive for USD/CAD bulls.
3. **Economic Backdrop and Interest Rates**: The analysis mentions that further softening in the economic backdrop and slower price growth should reinforce the idea that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to hike interest rates further in the near term. This anticipation of a pause in rate hikes can weigh on the CAD, making USD/CAD more attractive to traders.
4. **Core Inflation Deceleration**: The expectation of continued deceleration in core inflation measures, such as CPI-trim and CPI-median, indicates that underlying inflationary pressures may not be a concern. This can weaken the CAD and support a bullish move in USD/CAD.
5. **Caution Regarding Rate Cuts**: It's worth noting that the central banks, including the Bank of Canada, are expected to be cautious about declaring victory over inflation too early and pivoting to rate cuts. However, the anticipation of an extended pause in rate hikes rather than an immediate pivot to rate cuts can be seen as a positive factor for USD/CAD bulls.
In conclusion, the expected moderation in Canadian inflation, the potential return of headline CPI within the target range, the economic backdrop, and the likelihood of a pause in rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, along with continued core inflation deceleration, are factors that could support a bullish move in USD/CAD.
交易结束：到达止损:
Results were not in our favor.
Wiiso