A V-shaped rally has extended more than 2.8% off the monthly lows with price testing resistance at the November high-day close for a third consecutive session. The focus is on this key level in the days ahead with a breach / close above needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.
USD/CHF is trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the October / November lows. The weekly opening-range is taking shape and we are looking for a breakout to offer guidance here over the next few days.
Initial support rests with the September and October swing highs at 8072/76 and is backed by 8007/17- a region defined by the August low-day close (LDC) and the 38.2% retracement of the recent advance off the lows. Broader bullish invalidation rests with the lower parallel which converges on the 61.8% retracement at 7964. Ultimately, a close below the November LDC at 7939 would be needed to put the bears in control here.
Initial resistance is eyed at the monthly high-day close (HDC) at 8101 and is backed by the August high-close (HC) at 8125. Strength beyond this pivot zone would be needed to mark resumption of the broader September uptrend with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the August high and May low at 8172/86- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: USD/CHF is testing resistance for a third consecutive day with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below- look for the breakout in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 8001 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8125 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of this advance.
-MB
USD/CHF is trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the October / November lows. The weekly opening-range is taking shape and we are looking for a breakout to offer guidance here over the next few days.
Initial support rests with the September and October swing highs at 8072/76 and is backed by 8007/17- a region defined by the August low-day close (LDC) and the 38.2% retracement of the recent advance off the lows. Broader bullish invalidation rests with the lower parallel which converges on the 61.8% retracement at 7964. Ultimately, a close below the November LDC at 7939 would be needed to put the bears in control here.
Initial resistance is eyed at the monthly high-day close (HDC) at 8101 and is backed by the August high-close (HC) at 8125. Strength beyond this pivot zone would be needed to mark resumption of the broader September uptrend with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the August high and May low at 8172/86- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Bottom line: USD/CHF is testing resistance for a third consecutive day with the weekly opening-range taking shape just below- look for the breakout in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 8001 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 8125 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of this advance.
-MB
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