USDJPY: Potential retracement to 104.50 if it stalls near 107.20
Despite broad dollar buying, the Yen looks unlikely to see much further upside above 107.20 this week.
With this said, keep an eye on a close either side of 106.65 which provides a longer term bias (2011-2016 32% retracement level). Two consecutive daily closes, or one weekly close above this level would indicate the start of a sustained uptrend in USDJPY.
Look to sell an intraday rally towards 107.20 this week for a potential pullback towards 104.25-50 during next week.
With this said, keep an eye on a close either side of 106.65 which provides a longer term bias (2011-2016 32% retracement level). Two consecutive daily closes, or one weekly close above this level would indicate the start of a sustained uptrend in USDJPY.
Look to sell an intraday rally towards 107.20 this week for a potential pullback towards 104.25-50 during next week.
评论:
*SOME AT BOJ ARE SAID TO SEE NEED TO WEIGH POLICY MORE CAREFULLY
交易手动结束:
Closed earlier 105.72 - Kuroda presentation dismissing 'helicopter money' was from an old meeting in June (not overnight!)
Stepping back from USDJPY to allow the market to form a definitive swing low / high on a daily basis
Stepping back from USDJPY to allow the market to form a definitive swing low / high on a daily basis
交易结束：到达目标:
Initial 104.65 target met. It might be wise to cover here ahead of the event if you are still short.
However, on an intraday basis (4H chart) the market appears to be overbought with negative divergence on the momentum oscillators.
The peak may be in for a correction towards the initial target (now slightly higher at 104.63, followed by a test at 102.85 if this breaks.)