In my last posting, when USDJPY was around 111.50, I had assumed that 107.60 was already the major wave(4) bottom from which the big wave(5) rally started. But I was wrong! The break below 107.60 negated that wave count. Indeed, that down move was very sharp.
My current preferred count is that 107.60 was only wave-iii and 111.90 was only wave-iv of wave<5>. This wave<5> is in the form of a Falling Wedge (or Diagonal) pattern which allows for wave-i and wave-iv to overlap. The very sharp wave-v down move from 111.90 to 105.55 could be a classic panic capitulation move. In my opinion, this week's low of 105.55 is the major low of wave(4) already.
From the current level of 107.00, a move above 108.00 greatly enhances my preferred bullish count. But if USDJPY weakens below 106.00 again, then it may proceed to break below 105.50 for a final target of 103.50. This is not my most preferred count though.
We note that this week is Japan's Golden Week, so liquidity is thinner and BOJ is not expected to intervene unless really necessary. The key event in the short term will be this Friday's US nonfarm payrolls figure. Then next week, when Japan is back from holiday, we can expect plenty of Japanese official comments.
My current preferred count is that 107.60 was only wave-iii and 111.90 was only wave-iv of wave<5>. This wave<5> is in the form of a Falling Wedge (or Diagonal) pattern which allows for wave-i and wave-iv to overlap. The very sharp wave-v down move from 111.90 to 105.55 could be a classic panic capitulation move. In my opinion, this week's low of 105.55 is the major low of wave(4) already.
From the current level of 107.00, a move above 108.00 greatly enhances my preferred bullish count. But if USDJPY weakens below 106.00 again, then it may proceed to break below 105.50 for a final target of 103.50. This is not my most preferred count though.
We note that this week is Japan's Golden Week, so liquidity is thinner and BOJ is not expected to intervene unless really necessary. The key event in the short term will be this Friday's US nonfarm payrolls figure. Then next week, when Japan is back from holiday, we can expect plenty of Japanese official comments.
