If you look at the USDJPY pattern from last year (there was a rate hike on Dec 13, 2017), a top and then three increasingly lower tops before a strong pullback, it looks very much like this year, 49 weeks later. Supporting this is a mirror fractal (shown in yellow) from the last recovery. If the pattern continues, we could see 105-106 in March 2019. The pattern also fits my CAC40 fractal idea earlier.
The CIBC analysis reported on FXStreet.com supports this view, as do earlier forecasts by ExchangeRates.org.uk, and JPMorgan who predict a bottom at 104 in March 2019 and then a recovery.
The trade is to take advantage of the bounce from the 200-day SMA we hit on Dec 20, and short 111.50 for 105, with a 100 pip stop, which is 6.5:1
The CIBC analysis reported on FXStreet.com supports this view, as do earlier forecasts by ExchangeRates.org.uk, and JPMorgan who predict a bottom at 104 in March 2019 and then a recovery.
The trade is to take advantage of the bounce from the 200-day SMA we hit on Dec 20, and short 111.50 for 105, with a 100 pip stop, which is 6.5:1
交易开始:
First leg of decline reached
交易结束：到达目标:
Well there we go, the 5.83% profit (before leverage) target reached early due to Mrs Watanabe on tiny volume. Who knows it might do it again.
David Atherton
