managingchaoscapital

USDJPY - June/July - Broken trend/retest?

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managingchaoscapital 已更新   
FX:USDJPY   美元/日元
USDJPY recently broken under the bullish trend support that held since 3Q of 2016. Today, we might have experienced the retesting of that broken trend line. UJ may be at a bearish turning point here ifit holds the 110.100-110.500 level.

Technically, USDJPY is at the Daily 200MA, middle channel of Bollinger Band and the broken support which is now acting a resistance.

Fundamentally, all eyes are on the FED as markets are expecting a rate hike this month.

If this truly is a retest and USDJPY heads down from here we may see the lows indicated on the chat.
Otherwise, USDJPY's break may be considered a false breakout and wait for further signs of where it may go.


评论:
-FED increases rates by 25bps as expected.
-FED meeting confirmed that one more rate hike is likely to happen in 2017 (likely September).
-FED did highlight some downside risks on inflation staying under its 2% target rate.

It is interesting where the market will go from here, personally I see some possibility of short to mid-term bullishness.

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