long position maybe have a flag

FX:USDJPY   美元/日元
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评论: 1. Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is set to speak at the University of Michigan at 4:10PM ET (20:10GMT) on Monday. Audience questions are expected. Her comments will be monitored closely for any new insight on policy and the timing of when the Fed will next raise interest rates.The Fed chair could be asked about the U.S. central bank's plan to start shrinking its massive balance sheet, which ballooned to $4.5 trillion in wake of the financial crisis.The Fed has not yet offered details on how it would reduce its holdings of Treasurys and mortgages but said it would like to start later this year.Another topic of interest will be the Fed's concern that the stock market may be overvalued, as revealed in last week's minutes from the central bank's March policy meeting.We don’t know how the markets are going to react to this speech,we think that there might be 2 scenarios:
A:Janet Yellen begins talking about new interest hike and shows her cards.
B:Janet Yellen dodges questions about interest hikes and starts talking about limiting inflation and shrinking the balance sheet.
If scenario A takes place,expect the dollar to be bullish and if scenario B takes places expect the dollar traded pairs to be bearish.We recommend following our technical analysis for Monday(for the dollar traded pairs).
评论: 9.US Retail sales: Friday, 12:30. U.S. retail sales inched up 0.1% in February after a 0.6% gain in the previous month, posting the smallest rise in six months. A more lukewarm activity was registered at electronics and appliances stores, apparel outlets and car dealers. However, purchases may have been temporarily restrained by a slowdown in individual tax refunds. The robust confidence, healthy job growth and steady incomes may re boost spending in the coming months. Core retail sales excluding automobiles and service stations increased 0.2% from 1.2% in the prior month. US retail sales are expected to increase by 0.1% with a 0.2% gain in core sales.Predictions are for the retail sales to stay flat,but we in ruzey investment do not believe in this.Like we said in the upper rows,sales have slow down because of tax returns.March’s data about employment was superb,and the average hourly earnings increase also.However a lot of the small shops are closing because of no economic activity,which could indicate that people are not buying.But then again the number of people shopping online is increasing.We in ruzey investment recommend opening long positions.
评论: 8.US inflation data: Friday, 12:30 U.S. consumer prices rose in February by 0.1% after a 0.6% January. On a yearly base, CPI was up 2.7%, the most since March 2012. The figures were consistent with the Fed’s inflation projections, leading to the Fed’s rate hike in March. Meanwhile, core CPI, excluding volatile food and fuel costs, rose 0.2% after a 0.3% increase in the previous month. It gained 2.2% from a year ago. Economists expected CPI to remain unchanged while core CPI to rise 0.2%. The rise in the cost of living over the past year had little effect since wage growth has also increased. CPI is expected to remain unchanged, while core inflation is anticipated to rise by 0.2% in March.There are other predictions that the CPI would decline to 0,0% from 0,1%.The good news is that consumers didn’t have to spend as much on gasoline as prices fell. The downside is that purchases of new cars and trucks appear to be leveling off after years of soaring sales.
If that’s the case, the auto industry won’t rev up the economy as much as it has earlier in the economic expansion.
If the expectations meet the announced data,open long positions but be cautious ,because if the data stays the same as last month or even decreases you can open short positions .We believe that there will be an increase in inflation ,so our recommendation is to open long positions on all usd traded pairs..
评论: 7.US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Thursday, 14:00. Consumer confidence increased to a 16 year high in March as Americans were more optimistic with the current state of their finances and the economy, but remaining divided along party lines about the outlook. The preliminary index of sentiment increased to 96.9 from 96.3 in February. Economists expected sentiment would reach 97.1. Responders reported strong net gains in incomes and wealth while Republicans were “much more optimistic” than Democrats. Furthermore, people were more upbeat about the labor market but at the same time were uncertain about future growth under the new administration. Consumer moral is expected to remain elevated at 97.1 in April.If the real data meets the expectations ,we recommend opening long positions.We are uncertain in this prediction because ,the US economy data for March is looking good ,but on the other hand there were a couple of political impacts (the fail of Trumpcare,etc.) which could also have an effect on the indicator.Be ready to open shorts or longs on the major usd traded pairs..
评论: 6.US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.U.S. producer prices gained more than expected in February, rising 0.3% compared to 0.6% increase in the previous month. Economists expected a 0.1% rise. In the 12 months through February, the PPI soared 2.2% which is the biggest advance since March 2012, exceeding forecast of a 2.0% gain. The current inflation rate stands at 1.7% nearing the Federal Reserve 2% inflation target. Economists expect producer prices to be flat this time.The data for March is very important because it’s the first released report affecting inflation after the rate hike in March.The report is going to show us how the US manufacturing is reacting to the rate hike.IF the announced data meets the predictions we recommend opening shorts,but if the inflation rises ,open long positions on the major usd traded pairs..
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