OleksandrSnitko
做多

USDJPY m-term BUY setup (wave analysis)

OANDA:USDJPY   美元/日元
2649 11 52
1st major SELL target is reached - 111.56 (actual price was 111.59) - 38.2% retracement of wave 3(yellow) and 61.8% of wave (1);
My analysis tells that entire correction (bear market) may be already done at 38.2% retracement of 27sep-15dec bull market.
bear market (wave 4) = 61.8% of bull market (wave 3) in time. (yellow)
wave(4) = 38.2% of wave(2) in time. (blue)
wave (5) looks like diagonal.
confirmation of this buy setup will be a breakout of wave's (5) channel.
snapshot
If this wave count is true, m-term BUY targets are: 116.8, 120, 125.3.
Here is alternative wave count. (wave (3) extantion scenario)
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So, wait for mentioned breakout to buy it!
R/R ratio may be 19.
Trade with care!
Good luck!
交易开始: looking good.
wave (5) breakout is done.
wave C structure: trendline connecting (2)-(4) waves is left to be broken.
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评论: uj needs some correction.
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评论: short-term sell opportunity.
targets: 111.93 and 111.64
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after wave c is done, buy it.
buy setup is valid if wave c doesnt go beyond 111.59(7 feb bottom)
评论: here we go
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评论: 1st sell target is reached. (112.069)
maybe one more down to 111.775.
look for buy signals.(break of wave c trendline)
sl is 111.58.
buy setup is valid if wave c doesnt go beyond 111.59(7 feb bottom)
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交易开始: looks like buy signal
wave c is diagonal (1st wave extention) wave 3 is not the shortest.
divergence is present.
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评论: there is still no major breakout. shame.
uj has reached 111.77 sell target.
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buy setup is valid if wave c doesnt go below 111.59(7 feb bottom)
评论: watch this breakout
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交易开始: finally major wave C(yellow) structure is broken.
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now uj needs some correction before moving up.
correction may last for 6-10 hours.
评论: actually correction lasted 12 hour.
it was a running flat.
1st short-term target seems to be reached. 113.2
m-term targets are: 116.8, 120, 125.3.
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交易开始: looks like running triangle
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评论: Major s-term target (113.76) is reached.
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评论: possible re-buy point
c = 161.8% a (113.07)
but I think it's better to wait till Monday to re-buy.
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评论: short-term targets is reached. wave 1 = wave 5.
time to fix some profits.
I think uj needs to correct last week bull market .
3-5day bear/flat market is expected.
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评论: close look.
last week bull market's trendline is broken
wave A of ABC(green) is forming
abc (purple) inside A is forming.
major SELL target for wave c is 113.32 / minor targets are 113.6 and 112.87
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it's my 2nd short trade today.
评论: wave A(green) objectives is done. trendline is definitely broken.
1st minor sell target is reached (113.6).
so it may turn upside now, but there is still some room to fall. (toward 113.32 target)
评论: unless price does not go beyond 114.55, it still may go down.
short-term SELL targets are: 113.94, 113.6(major) and 113.05
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交易开始: S-term buy targets: 115.47-115.82
评论: 1st minor target is reached.
Pretty sharp correction started.
Disappoints. I didn't fix any uj profits. Just 2/3 of gu shorts.
评论: 114.05 - possible re-buy point
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评论: I don't have a clear view on UJ now.
usd goes crazy today. it breaks my planes.
I'll wait for consolidation to figure out what is going on
评论: possible scenario
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评论: wave 2(green) may still be in progress
in this case, uj may fall to 113.7
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评论: in case of 2 wave had already been done, this abc is just a minor correction, which target is 112.979.
price currently stuck at this level. so a probability of this scenario is increased.
take into account.
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评论: wave 2 is done on 80-95%. maybe 1-2 little swings down are left
keep an eye on it!
it should give a nice s-term BUY opportunity in near time
s-term buy target would be 114.9
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s-term buy setup is valid if price does not moves beyond 113.25
交易开始: ending diagonal is formed and broken.
s-term BUY target is 115.13
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评论: price went beyond local bottom.
s-term buy setup is invalid.
评论: as I see it now
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评论: price went beyond 14 feb low.
s-term buy setup is wrong.
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交易手动结束: uj looks very weak now.
it may crash in near term.
entire m-term buy setup might be invalid now.
It think it's better to close m-term longs in this situation.
评论: uj performs wave (2) - ABC (5-3-5) correction pattern.
100% target is reached.
161.8% target left.
I think it's a good time to look for re-buy point to resume advance toward 120.
If price does not exceed 111.59 m-term buy setup is valid.
watch wave C trendline breakout.
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big picture.
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交易开始: looks like m-term buy setup is valid.
diagonal was formed on 5th wave.
price didn't go below 111,59 (7 feb bottom)
diagonal trendline was broken. - buy signal.
expanding triangle was formed.
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交易开始: 112.89 and 113.46 - possible levels where uj may slow down a little bit
I wish uj to be unstoppable this week
交易开始: triangle
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评论: watch breakout
评论:
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a=c
price should not move below local bottom(112.25)
评论: s-term buy signal is invalid
评论: bigger picture
abc - flat
one swing up, one down, then watch for breakout
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交易开始: watch breakout
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评论: m-term buy setup is valid if price does not go below 111.59
评论: s-term analysis
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评论: looks like running triangle
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评论: buy targets.
aiming 114.88 in short term
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评论: moved sl at 113.72
评论:
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交易开始: current look & targets
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评论: m-term targets are: 116.8, 120, 125.3.
评论: possible re-buy points.
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评论: 114.76 target was reached
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评论: possible re-buy point
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评论: possible price action scenario
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评论: as wave 3(yellow) was formed (114.76 target reached), correction is expected
big picture.
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评论: I expect a good sell opportunity today/tomorrow after wave B would be formed.
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评论: short term sell. wave C unfolds.
sell targets: 113.41 and 112.96
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交易开始: short term buy targets
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medium term buy targets are: 116.8, 120, 125.3.
评论: I want to inform u that UJ reached short term buy targets before NFP report was released.
so technically it's likely to be corrected in near term to resume upward move latter.
no matter how good NFP report was.
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订单已取消: deep correction scenario.
price went below 6 feb and 28 feb bottoms.
m-term buy idea is closed / cancelled.
it was pretty nice idea. price went up from 111.59 to 115.5.
2 bull markets and one bear market were predicted, while uj m-term buy setup idea was active.
I told that short term buy targets was reached in previous update and I called for correction 14 minuted after NFP report, when price was 115.21.
now uj looks like it perform ABC zigzag correction (wave 4)
sell targets 111.11, 108.41, 107.2(61.8% retracement of 27 sep-15 dec bull market), 104.08
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sub (5) up otw...
回复
s73v13 s73v13
@s73v13, oops sorry xau otw finishing up sub (5), maybe tomorrow xau correctives and UJ up sub (5)
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I've decided I need to read that Elliot Wave book mainly because of your analysis.
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lets target 116 together...maybe finish this week 8-)
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@s73v13, I think next week. maybe Friday.
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very nice dude.. well done
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@iSummer, thank u
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that is a long run!. please detail day by day
+1 回复
OleksandrSnitko caothecongtoan
@caothecongtoan, check my comments. I keep an eye on it. I've even called for short term sell inside m-term buy idea.
+1 回复
from 111 straight to 120 yes great work
+1 回复
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