nick.trader4

USD/JPY- Further Price Analysis

OANDA:USDJPY   美元/日元
Last week we saw price return to the major resistance zone after some rejection late in previous weeks and early last week. Price returned to this zone after accumulation of contracts throughout the week within the range of 113.700- 114.250 and then a push to resistance on the release of negative NFP data (114.250). After the push to resistance there has been a slight pullback off this zone suggesting the strength of this zone and the contracts it will need to break it and push further.
This week there is a good possibility to see further upside based on price action and current fundamentals. The two scenarios how I can see price play out would be (A) a continued retracement to a supply zone or TL followed by accumulation of the resistance zone then a push to the extended upside target zone making a higher high continuing the uptrend. The other option is (B) a strong break of the resistance and a push into the target zone followed by a rejection and a retest of the broken resistance (now support @ 114.250). This seems less likely as it looks like we need some good strength to break this zone as price hasn't traded higher than that since a rate hike back in March 2017. Interestingly enough, fundamentals are strong for the dollar right now as a future rate hike that it almost certain to occur in December is being priced in. Even negative NFP data wasn't enough to bring prices lower. Would be interesting to see price return to the same area for the same type of fundamental event.
Fundamentals for this week include some central banker speeches (USD, JPY, EUR) and a USD bank holiday on Nov 10.
评论: Price couldnt break the resistance and is moving lower, maybe time to reasses
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