USDJPY STRUCTURE SHORT| SCENARIO DECONSTRUCTED

Yen is consistent in its defiance of the market , and is falling to dollar(reverse chart) while the dollar index is collapsing into the abyss.

Yet, the pair is at a major level, and a pullback is reasonable to expect. Dollar yen is moving in a rising cannel, and the pair is trading at its resistance, so a move towards the channel support is the most likely one. T1 level seems reasonable as a target, for it is at a first meaningful local support level.

From there, we either go lower to retest the major support in green, or, continue moving up to retest the resistance.

Many levels have been broken this week, even those that seemed solid. Plus, yen is falling while the dollar is weakening, so, it is natural to expect yen to weaken even more, when dollar finds its support.
Here is the dollar index chart so that you knew what I am talking about.

That said, a level is a level, and so I'd still work with it, at 0.5% risk, if the pair gives proper entry point.

If the level is broken and the breakout is confirmed, then, the next meaningful resistance is way up at 111.5, with the intermediary level being 110.20.
This scenario can be seen on the daily chart above.

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评论:

The level is broken, the upward movement is then more likely.