Viking83
做空

UJ - Easy come, Easy Go: Scenario A

FX:USDJPY   美元/日元
165 0 11
Since Trump spoke, UJ started to have a countertrend rally that lasted for almost 10 days.
The problem with this rally, was that it was not sustainable. Too fast, too furious, or easy come, easy go as some will say.
I expected a small bounce a bit earlier on its way down, please refer to the idea "level skipper".
The bounce didnt happen, and instead did UJ break an important level before backtesting the previous.
According to the level-master, @TPParadigma, now that a significant level has been broken, he got a confirmed target to 111.5.
I did some analysis. It retraced to almost (but not quite) the 78.6 retrace of its move up. Therefore, I expect it to finish its work on Monday with this small spike down. Then there should be a corrective move up. How far? Well, the intersection between trendline and 61.8 retrace seem like a logical spot. Then a wave C down to finish the business. I have a slightly lower target for this, 111.3. But that's even lower than the starting point! Well, the move will last about a day longer too, so a bit longer on each side.
The only thing that bothers me, it skipped a level. But I will still be able to sleep at night.
Good luck :)
评论: Markets are totally unpredicable, LOL. So far so good.


Let's see if it fails the backtest as I expect. Then there will be a next leg down.
评论: Took longer than expected, it had to make a lot of ridiculous bearflags on its way down.
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