USD/JPY reaches July 2017 maximum at 114.50
A release of data that beat analysts’ expectations not only signified a breakout from symmetrical triangle pattern but also provided a necessary impulse to reach the maximum of July 2017 located at the 114.50 level. That fundamental event was also significant for a couple of other reasons. First of all, it became evident that the pair is moving in a new minor ascending channel. Second, an upcoming breakout from that pattern is unlikely due to pressure from the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs that are rising along its southern boundary. This, in turn, implies that currency rate has a good chance to bypass the weekly R1 at 114.69 and reach a combined resistance set up by the monthly R1 and the March 2017 maximum at 115.00. Unfortunately, the pair faces a slope on its way that started to form in the end of 2015 and most probably will beat all bullish attempts by the end of the day.
A release of data that beat analysts’ expectations not only signified a breakout from symmetrical triangle pattern but also provided a necessary impulse to reach the maximum of July 2017 located at the 114.50 level. That fundamental event was also significant for a couple of other reasons. First of all, it became evident that the pair is moving in a new minor ascending channel. Second, an upcoming breakout from that pattern is unlikely due to pressure from the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs that are rising along its southern boundary. This, in turn, implies that currency rate has a good chance to bypass the weekly R1 at 114.69 and reach a combined resistance set up by the monthly R1 and the March 2017 maximum at 115.00. Unfortunately, the pair faces a slope on its way that started to form in the end of 2015 and most probably will beat all bullish attempts by the end of the day.
From technical point of view, the currency rate had all means to make a rebound near the 114.24 mark and make one more attempt to reach the monthly R1 at 114.84. However, changes in ten-year treasury rates led to depreciation of the buck and drove the pair out of an ascending channel. The downfall was not sharp, as the pair managed to quickly recover near the 113.73 mark. Although location of moving averages and pivot points indicate on recovery of the Dollar, there is a need to bear in mind potentially high volatility that could be caused by fundamental factors. Namely, traders might suddenly turn to safe haven Yen if Donald Trump continues his hot rhetoric during the visit to South Korea and other Asian countries.