USD/TRY 1H Chart: Junior channel expected to hold firm

FX:USDTRY   美元/新土耳其里拉
USD/TRY has been trading in channel down for the last three months. The upper boundary of this pattern was tested on January 9. The pair has since slid lower in a newly-formed junior channel.

If nothing extraordinary affects the rate, it is expected to remain within the boundaries of the junior channel until the upward-sloping trend-line located circa 3.75 is reached within the following two weeks.

In the short-term, however, the Greenback is likely to appreciate against the Lira, as suggested by oversold technical indicators. The pair could reverse from the weekly S1 at 3.7625 and move towards the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs located in the 3.7933/3.8035 area. Subsequently, a move towards the aforementioned trend-line should follow.

In case the bullish sentiment overwhelms the market, thus resulting in an upside breakout of the junior channel, gains could be capped at the 2018 high of 3.8363.
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