11 Week Pattern in $USO in 2023

2月1日

The methodology shown here is what I call "Timemode" because of a pattern of counting the number of bars at "the mode" of a trend and using that count to project the time of the move out of that mode.

I found the pattern by plotting charts by hand back in the 1980's, but fine-tuned here at TradingView with the powerful charting and tools available to us, amongst many other innovations and discoveries.

What you can see is a pattern of 11-week moves that have occurred AFTER USO, or Crude Oil's ETF, formed 11 weeks of time in the uptrend* from March 2023 through July 2023. I have highlighted the range of the mode from 63.21 to 63.97 using the blue price tags.

Once the mode has set and the market either "range expands away" from the mode or simply has an "entire range" above the mode (for an uptrend), then the timer starts and you can count the rally starting from the start of the 'range expansion bar' or the 'bar above the mode' as bar 1.

*Step back a moment to define 'trend':
"UP-trend" is whenever there is a period of 5 bars without a new low AND when the last price is > the mode from the low. This is the case from the low in March 2023. The opposite is true for downtrends.

It is a simple definition and it works.

To continue the story of the 11-week pattern: USO had an 11-week accumulation or 'mode' back in March-July 2023 which set up an 11-week rally into September 2023. That was followed by an 11-week decline back to the 11-week mode in December 2023.

Since that low USO has been rebounding and this is the 8th week of that rebound.

Will the pattern keep repeating?

We shall see.

For now, at least you know the pattern.

Cheers,

Tim

11:38AM Feb 1, 2024 USO 71.80 last


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