Vital Oil Updates/knowledge Into Next Week

2024年10月20日

Oil markets have presented an interesting case for a significant period time, ever since the rocket highs we saw around July 2022.

The real waning of extreme demand has slowly created lower highs rebounding to a key level of support that is very notable and has provided many repeated long side entries/exits.

Lately, concerns over Chinese demand for oil has slapped prices and sentiment remains weak. The initial push / rebound from key support we saw has almost totally diminished.

It is worth noting that a drop under this level is absolutely not inevitable.

The mistake lots of traders/investors make is that they believe some levels are absolutely solid, this is the same for the downside trend line drawn (see lower highs). Some traders believe these levels/trends are also invincible.

OPEC typically likes to keep prices at a fair and profitable medium. Any risk drivers (geopolitical) may cause rallies, whilst further demand outlook issues may drop price, particularly if they are extreme.

Keep any risk taken on any trade minimal. Current area(s) that are tradeable now pose inherent risk that is greater than before due to the tightening of ranges. A crushing sentiment blow either side can swing prices greatly out of such ranges.

I am only willing to buy anything significant under current lows, shorts will need to be much higher but will also come with lowered risk due to intense rallies.

2024年10月22日

注释

Very light shorts preferred.