The mega bear case

FX:USOIL   原油差价合约(WTI)
616 1
There were smaller or bigger pull backs, but in fact it is a falling knife. It proved that on bear market there are no such things like "lower supports"... I mean price can fall deeper than anyone expects. OK, maybe not to zero or below zero, as some expect :-D. What I want to say is that:
- a Bear market is a bear market until it breaks the trend. How low can it go? I don't know. Neither know those who predict 25-20-10-0 price. No one knows where it is going to bottom. Of course there will be more local bottoms, and one of them will be a finl low, but u don't know it until market makes a higher high and a higher low later!
- On Bear markets you can still make money in counter trend trades, but you don't have to force it, and you must be very precise in timing of pull back and cautious in position sizing (rather 0,5 unit than 1 full unit in case)
- On Bear markets the word of "Support" is valid only as a Bearish Support level! You must not look back X years ago, where were bottoms, also the channels and "possible" wedge formations can trick you easily! Only follow the current price action, trend, Ichimoku and Heikin-Ashi signals.
- Analogy like the one I really liked few months ago are "perfect" only until they are suddenly not any more. They can be fun to read and think about, but in fact again totally useless, until Price action justifies it in the present as well. See the link below... nice, just did not come true hahaha

I have to admit, that last year I made more money on swing longs in oil than on shorts, as I often missed bearish entries. I have to admit I also thought 34-35 will be a bottom in a wedge and that Oil would turn around... I was wrong and I lost on that last bet. Since 34 I have not touched it.
What I can promise, I will pop up the charts again if I see any momentum loss or a chance for a pull back.

For now just check the bearish supports/possible retracement zones:
- Daily: 34,50 / 37,65
- Weekly: ard 40

Whenever a Heikin-Ashi reversal signal appears, you can expect mkt to retrace to these levels (which of course will dip lower as time passes by), but do not expect this market to end heavy bearish trend until it trades below 40. Chance for a strategic reversal will increase above 40, but would be confirmed only with a weekly break above 45-49.

G6 (February/2016) contract expires tomorrow. Next front contract will be H6 (March), trades 105 points higher, right now still above 30 usd.
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