Oil reversal around the corner?

FX:USOIL   原油差价合约(WTI)
Following on from my last chart, we are approaching the previously identified target zone for this correction to terminate. The box is defined between prices 43.35 - 43.75.

I believe the market will have one last push into this target zone before a sharp reversal develops and the bears take us down towards the $38 mark.

I will look to enter short in the target zone with stops just above 44.86. So we're looking at 110 - 150 pips risk, for profit targets of 535 - 575 pips.

Bearish candles on the 2hr chart within the target box, followed by a MACD sell signal for the ultimate confidence booster would be my expectation.

If we see the market follow this script and hit $38... this could present us with the buying opportunity to jump onto the next 6+ month bull run.
Max, do you have updated view now
i've change my outlook, i am now bullish crude. long over 43
Sonic_scheme Sonic_scheme
my daily chart is bullish
so do you think there will be a pull back of todays fall first before resuming lower to 38?
Good !
nice job I sort back to 40 $ and we see from there
what do you look for on a macd for a sell signal?
The strongest thing to keep an eye out for is MACD divergence. Where the price of the instrument starts making higher highs... but the MACD doesn't. This is an indicator of falling momentum or exhaustion of a move. (also works in reverse for declines. Market makes new lows, MACD doesn't).

If you see these conditions and bearish candles develop, this could create a good reversal set up. The last thing I would look out for would be a MACD cross, where it crosses it's moving average. But in the case of this chart, the cross happened before the divergence and bearish candles formed.

I tend to find the crosses are the least reliable thing about the indicator, so personally I focus on spotting divergence.
mych36 max_andronichuk
It looks like the Macd is making higher highs and higher lows in this graph ?
Looking good at the moment ;-)
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