chartwatchers
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OIL - No Market For SHORT MAN

FX:USOIL   原油差价合约(WTI)
2360 37 38
Back to the old plan....
Most of the traders start to realize that this is not the market you can short.
We took out yesterday's high and now taking out the day before yesterday's high.
Though the day before yesterday we closed below the 10 EMA yesterday there was no follow through with a very high volume : we closed exactly on the 10 EMA . That's why I posted yesterday that I see oil             is starting to be strong. And today we are surging higher again. It was a fakeout move with a beartrap to play out shorts again. Without the big reversal of the DOLLAR (US index) we would have never had this breakdown from the uptrend channel .

I missed the MACD divergence in the hourly chart : it was a mistake. And we could have got out of oil             at 46$. But I know myself : if I got out at the wrong time I would start to see bearish signs and not be able to get back on the market again.
And let's say it was a 2 $ short: the earliest you could have entered: 46. If you were very good you jumped out at the 10 EMA , and went for long yesterday at market close. I think I could count on one of my hands how many people did this...
2-3 maybe from the whole trading view community. Now most of the shorts are in zero profit or loss. And starting to hope. And that is what the big banks are using out when they get your money out of your pockets.
They turn your basic feelings against you. This is a war. When you fight against yourself.

So now as we are going to take out 46.60 high the short covering will push the price into the range highlighted in green.
There I will take profit on the positions. But the story is not over. I'm not goingto short there because the junior bull is too dangerous. If starts to run destroys the shorts. I will wait for the daily cycle low at 42-43 - we see in real time - and enter again for the last homerun to 60$ maybe.

The other big surprise what is coming now that the stock market is not going to collapse. Fasten your seat belts: it's going to go to new highs in the next months.

Guys I went through this in 2009 and lost a lot of money when oil             made a homerun. I was trying to short. The same thing is happening. These are rare moments. I was waiting for this possibility 7 years. In 2009 there was no trading view only a few forums. Use out this possibilty beacuse the big funds sooner or later will change their trading strategies.
This and next year we can make a hell of a lot of money out of these markets.

评论: I want to prepare all of you that a wild ride is coming now:
评论: I will be travelling today. Just in case if we have a crazy rally in oil I set my twitter account here. Follow it pls I might will post only there if I exit oil around 50$
评论: If we close with this reversed hammer that would sign the end of the pullback still on the daily chart...
评论: Inverted hammer today. Strong volume. Close above the 10 EMA.
Usually this is the sign of a trend reversal
WE are just waiting for the stock market to start its rally.
Most probably tomorrow after the NFP data...
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JGu4gi6G/
评论: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JGu4gi6G/
Timeless.
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IvanLabrie IvanLabrie
Thanks.
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Why the starting bullish trend (on USOIL) in March 2015 reverted to bearish in May and June 2015 ? I am still quite doubtful that the real reason was international oversupply. What do you think ? Thank you !
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Thank you kindly for all the info. Still new to this game, so trying my best to digest everything. But your analysis is extremely helpful.
Mahalos from Hawaii.
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So this post says oil to $50, another "expert" says oil to $30. What's the deal in these forums.
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I never said I'm an expert.
My trades are win, loose and draw. 70%-20%-10%
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JZA80 chartwatchers
So let me bet the farm on oil going to $50 and see what happens.
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I'm long since 30$ so playing with the house's money.
And I posted when I last time added to my positions. When I post long I'm not holding a shotgun to the followers
head to go long I just think that the rally is not over.
ANd sorry but I'm not going to close the longs while we can't even close below the 10 EMA on the daily.
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What crude oil instruments are you trading ?
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chartwatchers andrej123456
USOIL, ERX, XLE
+1 回复
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