Since the first top at 1980 in June 2014, the vol has never drifting up while SP500 was marking new tops after each correction.
The VOL knows before.
If that holds true, there's noise coming.
buy 5bp a vol... the vol may increase to 27 consistent with levels observed on:
- Greek tension in Feb10
- Fukushima event in Mar11
It will probably require a catalyst to be triggered. Let's just say that the market needs an excuse to stretch.
