I would like to show a longer term view in wheat on the weekly chart.
These kind of setups are rare opportunities. I think in 2016 November we printed the bottom of the multi year bear market.
The previous bull market peaked in 2012 summer. After that date wheat started a multi year decline.
I highlighted by red boxes the yearly cycles. In wheat the yearly cycles are 49-66 weeks long.
In a bear market we are printing lower yearly cycle lows and lower yearly cycles highs. If you check this weekly chart it's obvious we had a clear bear market in the last 5 years. But...
There was a change a few weeks ago. The actual yearly cycle peaked higher (5.55) at the beginning of July than the previous yearly cycle high in 2016 June (5.22)... That's a very important character change. This is how the bear market ends and the bull market starts...
Based on this my previous call is possible a bit early... The perfect entry will be most probably next week. The weekly RSI should get more oversold .
If I'm right price will not get below 3.67$ in the following few years...
I still see there is a possibility price is breaking below marginally 3,9$. But as we are printing a yearly cycle low in the following weeks I want to be in a starting position as a rally out of this low will be V-shaped .
These kind of setups are rare opportunities. I think in 2016 November we printed the bottom of the multi year bear market.
The previous bull market peaked in 2012 summer. After that date wheat started a multi year decline.
I highlighted by red boxes the yearly cycles. In wheat the yearly cycles are 49-66 weeks long.
In a bear market we are printing lower yearly cycle lows and lower yearly cycles highs. If you check this weekly chart it's obvious we had a clear bear market in the last 5 years. But...
There was a change a few weeks ago. The actual yearly cycle peaked higher (5.55) at the beginning of July than the previous yearly cycle high in 2016 June (5.22)... That's a very important character change. This is how the bear market ends and the bull market starts...
Based on this my previous call is possible a bit early... The perfect entry will be most probably next week. The weekly RSI should get more oversold .
If I'm right price will not get below 3.67$ in the following few years...
I still see there is a possibility price is breaking below marginally 3,9$. But as we are printing a yearly cycle low in the following weeks I want to be in a starting position as a rally out of this low will be V-shaped .
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I'M waiting for 6-6.5$ in this vehicle in the following year.
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Minimum...
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Wheat is catching up today. Another idea where patience pays off
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We will be harvesting 50% profit soon in this carry trade idea.
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We've entered near to the exact bottom.
Waiting for WheatUsd 6$ in 5-6 weeks.
Waiting for WheatUsd 6$ in 5-6 weeks.
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Our entry was at 4,111$
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I'm going to close this trade soon before the next intermediate correction arrives.
It was a nice carry trade - a 1 year trade - with a new yearly cycle high as I was waiting for. I see still a lot of possibilities in wheat in the future.
So I will definetely long it again when the next correction comes
It was a nice carry trade - a 1 year trade - with a new yearly cycle high as I was waiting for. I see still a lot of possibilities in wheat in the future.
So I will definetely long it again when the next correction comes
Wanted to write end of bear market...