WTC And The Logarithmic Downtrend - Will The Selling End?
已更新
Ah, the worst performing coin in my portfolio. This is the only crypto asset I own that I have not really averaged down on since November, since I saw other coins likely to far outperform it. So far, I've been correct in my assumption.
Why hasn't it bounced like some other coins, you ask? The answer is simple - Pump and Dump groups cannot confidently pump a coin that has a lot of negative media coverage. "The jig is up," so to speak. They can only pump coins that have not proven how valuable or worthless they are - i.e. coins driven entirely on speculation. Waltonchain has left the speculative phase and is now on the verge of getting wiped off the map, unless it can redeem investor confidence. They need to prove that their token has value, regardless of whether or not their tech is getting adopted. These are actually two different things.
WTC is also one of the few coins to remain in a LOGARITHMIC downtrend for over a year. This means it is consistently exponentially DECREASING in value. Check out the red line. We're actually close to breaking out of it now, which explains the volume. However, their mainnet keeps getting delayed and people have lost patience. This explains the recent selloff as well.
If WTC cannot hold here and break out of the red wedge (current price), we will likely fall down to somewhere in the 2100-2200 area. If we break out though, and if their mainnet launch is somehow successful, we can easily double up from here and target the 5400 area. This means a powerful breakout IS possible. And it could happen soon. I may start to increase my position a little if I see signs of this happening.
As for current price action, it looks like we're forming a head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. This is bad, considering it's forming right at the log downtrend line. However, if we can close the next daily candle above it and invalidate the head and shoulders, we MIGHT see a powerful breakout.
This is not a trade setup and this is not financial advice. This is just my opinion based on what I see in the charts, and fundamentally. This is mostly educational, as I think it's important to highlight WHY Walton hasn't bounced, and why it remains one of the worst performing coins during this bear market. Link to previous WTC analysis at bottom.
-Victor Cobra
Why hasn't it bounced like some other coins, you ask? The answer is simple - Pump and Dump groups cannot confidently pump a coin that has a lot of negative media coverage. "The jig is up," so to speak. They can only pump coins that have not proven how valuable or worthless they are - i.e. coins driven entirely on speculation. Waltonchain has left the speculative phase and is now on the verge of getting wiped off the map, unless it can redeem investor confidence. They need to prove that their token has value, regardless of whether or not their tech is getting adopted. These are actually two different things.
WTC is also one of the few coins to remain in a LOGARITHMIC downtrend for over a year. This means it is consistently exponentially DECREASING in value. Check out the red line. We're actually close to breaking out of it now, which explains the volume. However, their mainnet keeps getting delayed and people have lost patience. This explains the recent selloff as well.
If WTC cannot hold here and break out of the red wedge (current price), we will likely fall down to somewhere in the 2100-2200 area. If we break out though, and if their mainnet launch is somehow successful, we can easily double up from here and target the 5400 area. This means a powerful breakout IS possible. And it could happen soon. I may start to increase my position a little if I see signs of this happening.
As for current price action, it looks like we're forming a head and shoulders pattern on the hourly chart. This is bad, considering it's forming right at the log downtrend line. However, if we can close the next daily candle above it and invalidate the head and shoulders, we MIGHT see a powerful breakout.
This is not a trade setup and this is not financial advice. This is just my opinion based on what I see in the charts, and fundamentally. This is mostly educational, as I think it's important to highlight WHY Walton hasn't bounced, and why it remains one of the worst performing coins during this bear market. Link to previous WTC analysis at bottom.
-Victor Cobra
交易开始
We've closed our first 4 hour candle above the log downtrend since July 2018.I re-entered my WTC position with 30% extra (from my BAT trade). Will take that 30% out if we break up here. 注释
Zoomed out: 注释
A price breakout doesn't have to be news driven - it can be purely technical, just like the breakout with BAT recently. Breakouts on LONG downtrends like this tend to be extremely powerful.注释
Probably a more reasonable target would be somewhere between 4000 and 4100. But you never know. 注释
We've now closed our first daily candle outside of the downtrend. This may indicate further upside. 注释
Volume isn't looking great, honestly, but we could get a surprise influx at any time, especially if it rockets up out of nowhere. Otherwise, WTC may just continue to look weak and it could backtest the broken resistance. Still consolidating rather well and moving up slowly.注释
While we did rally higher to the 3200 area, we were immediately met with strong sells that caused us to essentially retrace the entire pump with a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart. We also failed to close above 2900/3000. If the log trend line can't serve as support, I may end up exiting my entire position again. As I mentioned above in the main analysis, WTC continues to underperform, and it's not surprising considering their track record. 交易手动结束
Out for now. That rejection was pretty strong. Sort of like what happened with GVT recently.交易开始
Entered again at 2930. Now follow through dump on the rejection, so this is starting to look more like accumulation. I used some LTC profits for the trade, so I’m not risking much in terms of my capital. Yes, LTC May continue higher but potential upside is diminishing a little. Thought it would be worth it.注释
No follow through**交易手动结束
Never mind. Decided to go with ENG instead. More speculative hype around it rather than skepticism.
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