Wyckoff Analysis:
Phase A: Large change of character to the downside with large bearish candle + volume increase suggests new consolidation range forming. Automatic rally + secondary test confirm new range formation, stopping of current trend at least for the time being and end of Phase A.
Phase B: Relatively smaller movements on reduced volume. Then, large move down and up shows a clear change of character which suggests something different is happening in the market - Phase C may be seen soon.
Phase C: Significant downside move with localised volume spike suggests spring. Accumulation would be confirmed with lows testing in Phase D.
Phase D: Lows tested successfully - accumulation confirmed. Lack of supply spikes in low volume rally indicates that no last point of support will be seen - this is the case. Clear backing up action at top of range suggesting Phase E/markup is about to begin.
Phase E: Markup begins.
TP: Projection based on P&F chart (close, 0.01 box size, 3 reversal).
Arrow ($17.4) shows projection from where accumulation range was left.
Box shows projection from top and bottom of consolidation range to give TP range.
I have not entered this trade due to late analysis.
Chart published for educational purposes.
Questions are welcome.
Phase A: Large change of character to the downside with large bearish candle + volume increase suggests new consolidation range forming. Automatic rally + secondary test confirm new range formation, stopping of current trend at least for the time being and end of Phase A.
Phase B: Relatively smaller movements on reduced volume. Then, large move down and up shows a clear change of character which suggests something different is happening in the market - Phase C may be seen soon.
Phase C: Significant downside move with localised volume spike suggests spring. Accumulation would be confirmed with lows testing in Phase D.
Phase D: Lows tested successfully - accumulation confirmed. Lack of supply spikes in low volume rally indicates that no last point of support will be seen - this is the case. Clear backing up action at top of range suggesting Phase E/markup is about to begin.
Phase E: Markup begins.
TP: Projection based on P&F chart (close, 0.01 box size, 3 reversal).
Arrow ($17.4) shows projection from where accumulation range was left.
Box shows projection from top and bottom of consolidation range to give TP range.
I have not entered this trade due to late analysis.
Chart published for educational purposes.
Questions are welcome.
评论:
Moving exactly as expected:
评论:
TP revised and reached with latest point and figure calculations:
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After reaching the target, leaving the markup channel with a retest too, the market has now entered another consolidation range as I'd expect. Seems to be distribution from early signs, but no trade will be taken before Phase C has begun: