Here is a simple comparison of airlines in two major events. 9/11 vs Covid.
It may surprise you to know that we are seeing the exact same pattern we
saw after 9/11. We can argue if the impact of covid had the same impact
as the aftermath of 9/11. if the industry is even the same as it was back
then if the bailouts are equal etc...
But from a charting perspective, the patterns are identical. If the similarities
continue, (and I don't see why not) Then we are likely at a top. Being that
airlines are extremely economically sensitive and capital intensive I suspect
the stock markets will also drop.
I could be grossly wrong, we definitely need more data, but from a risk-reward
standpoint, I would not be long airlines at this point. And I am not! :P
"Better to be out wishing you were in than in which you were out."
It may surprise you to know that we are seeing the exact same pattern we
saw after 9/11. We can argue if the impact of covid had the same impact
as the aftermath of 9/11. if the industry is even the same as it was back
then if the bailouts are equal etc...
But from a charting perspective, the patterns are identical. If the similarities
continue, (and I don't see why not) Then we are likely at a top. Being that
airlines are extremely economically sensitive and capital intensive I suspect
the stock markets will also drop.
I could be grossly wrong, we definitely need more data, but from a risk-reward
standpoint, I would not be long airlines at this point. And I am not! :P
"Better to be out wishing you were in than in which you were out."
评论:
I doubt anyone remembers this chart but they should. Great piece of analysis.
评论:
More than a year and half later this Great piece of analysis remains BANG ON! Nothing has changed!
评论:
How many forgot this great analysis? Still valid today as it was then when i first posted it.
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The Luck Gods keep showering me with their blessings.
MAGIC!
MAGIC!
Real Macro Economic Investing
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