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Gold drop confirms with seasonality study

FX:XAUUSD   黄金现货/美元
“As per seasonality study of last 25 years, March is usually a great time to buy the metal as prices rally in May. The metal suffers a summer market lull/drop which is followed by a rally in September and October” - said Amanda Van Dyke, Fund Manager at SF Peterhouse Gold Fund on our Finance show today. Find the show here titled “Digging into Gold & Gold mining fundamentals” - www.youtube.com/watch?v=4reolbWC...

Prices slipped from the high of $1364 to a daily low of $1339.68 levels after the all important US non-farm payrolls data and wage growth figures data showed the US economy is on fire… The question now being raised is “why isn’t the Fed hiking rates” rather than “when and if the Fed will hike rates”.

Gold outlook

  • Gold’s sharp retreat from today indicates the rebound from daily rising trend line at July end topped out at $1367.15 (Aug 2 high) and a short-term congestion above the rising trend line could be seen if today’s closing is above the trend line support of $1335.
  • If the rising trend line is breached on daily closing basis, the psychological support at $1300 could be put to test.
  • On the higher side, only a daily closing above $1380 (38.2% of 2011 high-2015 low) would suggest prices have resumed the rising trend from Dec lows.

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