Spot Gold
XAUUSD
The US CPI data showed that inflation slowed down, giving the market a temporary relief, but the economic growth rate was still sluggish, far from the Fed’s target. Therefore, the market’s expectation of the Fed’s rate cut did not change, only the short-term optimism faded, and some investors chose to take profits. This led to gold rising rapidly and then falling back. There is still one non-farm and CPI report to refer to before the June Fed meeting. If you want to prove that the Fed will pause rate hikes in June, then inflation data must continue to decline, and non-farm data must also be weak, otherwise the future uncertainty is still high.
From a technical point of view, it is not clear whether gold is confirming resistance or regaining lost ground. The short-term is still in the shape construction. Operationally, it is recommended to oscillate at high levels before the recent high point is broken. On the 4-hour level, gold stabilized above the 2000 mark and rebounded, showing signs of testing the high point again, and then look at the shape transformation. In the medium and long term, pay attention to whether the upward trend line on the 4-hour level is effective, which may be a technical support for gold’s rise in the future. Intra-day short-term mainly focus on yesterday’s high resistance of 2045-2048, and the support of 2018-2021 below.
Reference points:
2073-2080 Historical high resistance
2053-2057 Secondary resistance
2045-2048 Daily high resistance
2038 CPI after short-term retracement without breaking resistance
2028 4-hour Bollinger Band mid-track support
2018-2021 This week’s low support
2008-2012 Daily Bollinger Band support + last Friday’s end-of-day retracement low
1998 Last Friday’s post-non-farm low
1987 Last week’s PMI data starting point + upward channel support, important
1970-1972 Key support this week
XAUUSD
The US CPI data showed that inflation slowed down, giving the market a temporary relief, but the economic growth rate was still sluggish, far from the Fed’s target. Therefore, the market’s expectation of the Fed’s rate cut did not change, only the short-term optimism faded, and some investors chose to take profits. This led to gold rising rapidly and then falling back. There is still one non-farm and CPI report to refer to before the June Fed meeting. If you want to prove that the Fed will pause rate hikes in June, then inflation data must continue to decline, and non-farm data must also be weak, otherwise the future uncertainty is still high.
From a technical point of view, it is not clear whether gold is confirming resistance or regaining lost ground. The short-term is still in the shape construction. Operationally, it is recommended to oscillate at high levels before the recent high point is broken. On the 4-hour level, gold stabilized above the 2000 mark and rebounded, showing signs of testing the high point again, and then look at the shape transformation. In the medium and long term, pay attention to whether the upward trend line on the 4-hour level is effective, which may be a technical support for gold’s rise in the future. Intra-day short-term mainly focus on yesterday’s high resistance of 2045-2048, and the support of 2018-2021 below.
Reference points:
2073-2080 Historical high resistance
2053-2057 Secondary resistance
2045-2048 Daily high resistance
2038 CPI after short-term retracement without breaking resistance
2028 4-hour Bollinger Band mid-track support
2018-2021 This week’s low support
2008-2012 Daily Bollinger Band support + last Friday’s end-of-day retracement low
1998 Last Friday’s post-non-farm low
1987 Last week’s PMI data starting point + upward channel support, important
1970-1972 Key support this week