If you follow my idea about shorting gold, it could be the moment to pull the trigger now. If you do not have a chance to read part 1, check out my profile and look for my older posts.
In this part 2 I will show you some more evidence why we want to pull the short on gold. Let's take a look at the chart where I compare Gold chart with USD Index DXY chart.
As you can see in the DXY chart, the downtrend line was taken out and USD Index rallied to 96 before turning down after the bad NFP data. However, we can see clearly that it might be just a retest of the downtrend line after the breakout. Last week USD Index DXY has bounced back with a green candle after touching the trend line. This could mean that the rally in USD Index is not over yet, and DXY may turn back up and pass that 96 level to get to a higher level somewhere around 98-100. Maybe this is a technical clue about this coming FOMC's result. I suspect it. Has the technical outlook of the USD Index pointed out that there is a possibility for a surprise from the FED or maybe some really hawkish comments about hiking rate in July when it comes to this FOMC ?
Now turn to Gold chart, nothing is special except that price is approaching the green downtrend line and is trading at that important resistance area 1285-1292 as I predicted in part 1. I have not seen any meaningful reversal pattern yet in the daily chart however what I have seen here is the decreasing volume in the weekly chart. This is one of the most important validations of the head and shoulders pattern. Volume usually peaks in left shoulder before decreasing after that. The head, and especially the right shoulder, will have less significant volume than the left shoulder. That is showing on the chart right now.
I do not believe the USD Index and Gold can be correlated for a while. In fact, the technical outlook of USD Index may suggest something is happening here. So stay tuned for further update because I will look for reversal patterns when I take my short based on price action at this resistance area 1285-1292.
In this part 2 I will show you some more evidence why we want to pull the short on gold. Let's take a look at the chart where I compare Gold chart with USD Index DXY chart.
As you can see in the DXY chart, the downtrend line was taken out and USD Index rallied to 96 before turning down after the bad NFP data. However, we can see clearly that it might be just a retest of the downtrend line after the breakout. Last week USD Index DXY has bounced back with a green candle after touching the trend line. This could mean that the rally in USD Index is not over yet, and DXY may turn back up and pass that 96 level to get to a higher level somewhere around 98-100. Maybe this is a technical clue about this coming FOMC's result. I suspect it. Has the technical outlook of the USD Index pointed out that there is a possibility for a surprise from the FED or maybe some really hawkish comments about hiking rate in July when it comes to this FOMC ?
Now turn to Gold chart, nothing is special except that price is approaching the green downtrend line and is trading at that important resistance area 1285-1292 as I predicted in part 1. I have not seen any meaningful reversal pattern yet in the daily chart however what I have seen here is the decreasing volume in the weekly chart. This is one of the most important validations of the head and shoulders pattern. Volume usually peaks in left shoulder before decreasing after that. The head, and especially the right shoulder, will have less significant volume than the left shoulder. That is showing on the chart right now.
I do not believe the USD Index and Gold can be correlated for a while. In fact, the technical outlook of USD Index may suggest something is happening here. So stay tuned for further update because I will look for reversal patterns when I take my short based on price action at this resistance area 1285-1292.
交易开始:
I have opened 1 short position @1286 based on three components:
- Price has reached Fibo Retrace Level 78.6%
- Price has reached monthly downtrend line and not able to push over it.
- ab = cd pattern on 4hr chart.
If we assume this impulse wave as a corrected (B) then wave (B) will not retrace more than 78.6% to 88.6% of wave (A).
I will add another short position if price reaches @1292. All stop loss are above 1303.
- Price has reached Fibo Retrace Level 78.6%
- Price has reached monthly downtrend line and not able to push over it.
- ab = cd pattern on 4hr chart.
If we assume this impulse wave as a corrected (B) then wave (B) will not retrace more than 78.6% to 88.6% of wave (A).
I will add another short position if price reaches @1292. All stop loss are above 1303.
交易开始:
I have opened 1 short position @1286 based on three components:
- Price has reached Fibo Retrace Level 78.6%
- Price has reached monthly downtrend line and not able to push over it.
- ab = cd pattern on 4hr chart.
If we assume this impulse wave as a corrected (B) then wave (B) will not retrace more than 78.6% to 88.6% of wave (A).
I will add another short position if price reaches @1292. All stop loss are above 1303.
- Price has reached Fibo Retrace Level 78.6%
- Price has reached monthly downtrend line and not able to push over it.
- ab = cd pattern on 4hr chart.
If we assume this impulse wave as a corrected (B) then wave (B) will not retrace more than 78.6% to 88.6% of wave (A).
I will add another short position if price reaches @1292. All stop loss are above 1303.
评论:
Gold looks like it has made a double top @1287. We got the same double top @1300 and what happened ? Gold was down $104 from 1303 to 1199. Now let's hope this is true also for this current wave. Stay tuned.
交易结束：到达止损:
Closed my short position @1304. Price made a higher high so all assumption are invalid. I have not seen any price rejection. We have to respect this market. Gold will try more upside till Brexit vote. I will look for another short entry when gold reaches 1330-1340 area.
