Gold's general commentary: Gold has made an important Bullish step towards full scale Hourly 1 chart reversal as it almost recovered the #1,795.80 pressure point. That makes Hourly 4 chart practically Neutral but leaning more to the Bullish side, well Supported at #1,770’s, which has held on multiple occasions. Hourly 4 is still Neutral as said, but broken Channel Down on Hourly 1 chart has expanded giving me Buying signs that Gold may test #1,800.80 on positive NFP numbers. Gold was mainly correlated with Bond Yields during first #6 Months of the Year (January-June) and probability that July will also be Yields Month is #91% since DX was on uptrend and broke all Resistances, and Gold was also on Short-term recovery which confirms my Gold - Yields correlation on July opening, so look for pointers there. Remember, when you are unsure of the Medium-term direction on Gold always look for clues on Bond Yields and Trade accordingly. Only when Yields Trade on Weekly chart’s Lower High I will be able to note with a higher degree of certainty that the Bearish reversal on Gold is sustainable.
Fundamental analysis: Since #1,778.80 held as a Support Gold Naturally found more Short-term Buyers and Investors may again use Gold as a safe-haven, parking their capital from Equities and Yields towards Gold, but this phenomenon will not last long. Daily chart should turn Overbought (Williams%) near #1,790.80 as that is far above my Targets. Similar outlook happened in late June to mid July #2018 (within #1,440.80 - #1,380.80) I expect to be repeated once the Top is near Price-action (#1,790’s) - I expect similar scenario at the moment (#1,780’s - #1,790’s). If Bond Yields also start recovering on every Hourly candle, especially after last week’s Fundamental data and NFP reading better than actual, I am expecting Gold to first recover #1,772.80 and #1,766.80 in extension. Gold rebounded on the last week's #1,770.80 session pressure point on an Hourly 4 chart Engulfing Bullish candle that set the all Moving Averages back to Neutral state (which is also a Bearish sign). This move was caused by a Low’s on Yields after the GDP release, a Volatility reaction on Hourly 1 Chart which should soon normalize. Gold is currently on a diagonal correlation with the Yields and as long as the, Fed fueled, DX Buy-off lasts, Gold will have evident Selling pressure, and should Trade under it. I will Trade the breakout (#1,778.80 break calling for Lower Low extension test). Hourly 1 chart is showing Short-term Bullish values and Selling could be paused for #2 sessions, but surely will continue on Short-term.
Technical analysis: As mentioned before, Gold made an important Bullish step forward to complete #1,800.80 psychological barrier oscillation. As is typical for E.U. session and traditional Bullish pressure, Bond Yield’s dipped even to (# -2.58%). As expected NFP report was greater than expected, which spiked Gold towards #1,800.80 Higher Low and stopped at Medium-term Resistance priced at #1,794.80, DX dropped to multi-Month Support level #92.10, Bond Yields still on Low’s, with this kind configuration of correlation assets, Gold Price should have been under more Buying pressure. If market closes below #1,790.80 and Bond Yields also engage the recovery, I am excepting #1,752.80 test within in #2 - #5 sessions. I am still fully on Bearish side and I will keep operating with my Selling orders. Gold needs to invalidate #1,795.80 for additional gains.
My position: As I am on sidelines for more than #2 sessions, I won't be making any risky shots and taking excessive risks as I am more than satisfied with my Monthly and Yearly Profits. Gold can test #1,800.80 psychological barrier and extend the recovery towards #1,812.80, which is the furthest as I can see it at the moment. Traders who are willing to take risks, they can engage the Buying position (with Stop-loss not more than #8 points) and move the Stop-loss in Profit every $4 points up. Traders who prefer to sit out today's session, market will deliver Selling opportunity or near #1,800.80, or above near #1,812.80. Regardless, Gold is on #3 session Buying spree because of weakness on Yields, as soon as Yields engage the recovery, Gold will continue Medium-term Selling sequence. I am expecting Double Bottom on Gold near #1,678.80.
Fundamental analysis: Since #1,778.80 held as a Support Gold Naturally found more Short-term Buyers and Investors may again use Gold as a safe-haven, parking their capital from Equities and Yields towards Gold, but this phenomenon will not last long. Daily chart should turn Overbought (Williams%) near #1,790.80 as that is far above my Targets. Similar outlook happened in late June to mid July #2018 (within #1,440.80 - #1,380.80) I expect to be repeated once the Top is near Price-action (#1,790’s) - I expect similar scenario at the moment (#1,780’s - #1,790’s). If Bond Yields also start recovering on every Hourly candle, especially after last week’s Fundamental data and NFP reading better than actual, I am expecting Gold to first recover #1,772.80 and #1,766.80 in extension. Gold rebounded on the last week's #1,770.80 session pressure point on an Hourly 4 chart Engulfing Bullish candle that set the all Moving Averages back to Neutral state (which is also a Bearish sign). This move was caused by a Low’s on Yields after the GDP release, a Volatility reaction on Hourly 1 Chart which should soon normalize. Gold is currently on a diagonal correlation with the Yields and as long as the, Fed fueled, DX Buy-off lasts, Gold will have evident Selling pressure, and should Trade under it. I will Trade the breakout (#1,778.80 break calling for Lower Low extension test). Hourly 1 chart is showing Short-term Bullish values and Selling could be paused for #2 sessions, but surely will continue on Short-term.
Technical analysis: As mentioned before, Gold made an important Bullish step forward to complete #1,800.80 psychological barrier oscillation. As is typical for E.U. session and traditional Bullish pressure, Bond Yield’s dipped even to (# -2.58%). As expected NFP report was greater than expected, which spiked Gold towards #1,800.80 Higher Low and stopped at Medium-term Resistance priced at #1,794.80, DX dropped to multi-Month Support level #92.10, Bond Yields still on Low’s, with this kind configuration of correlation assets, Gold Price should have been under more Buying pressure. If market closes below #1,790.80 and Bond Yields also engage the recovery, I am excepting #1,752.80 test within in #2 - #5 sessions. I am still fully on Bearish side and I will keep operating with my Selling orders. Gold needs to invalidate #1,795.80 for additional gains.
My position: As I am on sidelines for more than #2 sessions, I won't be making any risky shots and taking excessive risks as I am more than satisfied with my Monthly and Yearly Profits. Gold can test #1,800.80 psychological barrier and extend the recovery towards #1,812.80, which is the furthest as I can see it at the moment. Traders who are willing to take risks, they can engage the Buying position (with Stop-loss not more than #8 points) and move the Stop-loss in Profit every $4 points up. Traders who prefer to sit out today's session, market will deliver Selling opportunity or near #1,800.80, or above near #1,812.80. Regardless, Gold is on #3 session Buying spree because of weakness on Yields, as soon as Yields engage the recovery, Gold will continue Medium-term Selling sequence. I am expecting Double Bottom on Gold near #1,678.80.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
