XAUUSD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
XAUUSD FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monday saw a downtrend in the precious metals market, with gold prices fluctuating and falling back. Starting this week, due to the lack of significant new fundamental news driving the precious metals market, gold traders will focus on external markets, most of which are in a bullish trend.
U.S. Treasury yields edged up slightly while competing asset classes such as stocks have led the U.S. stock index to reach or approach historical highs. These external factors have triggered technical selling in the gold market.
Furthermore, the comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker, expressing his fundamental forecast including one more rate cut before the end of the year, continue to weigh on non-yielding assets.
Hawk emphasized the necessity of ongoing assessment, stating, "If everything unfolds as expected, I believe a rate cut before the end of the year is appropriate."
However, he also left room for adjustments based on new economic data, noting, "Regardless of how the data evolves, I think it is quite likely that there will be either two rate cuts this year or no cuts at all... We will still rely on the data."
Hawk believes the current policy rate, which has been stable for nearly 11 months, remains effective in maintaining restrictive conditions to bring inflation back to target levels and mitigate upside risks.
His projections include a slowdown in economic growth but above trend levels, a mild increase in unemployment rates, and a gradual return of inflation to target levels, which he describes as a "long glide".
Monday saw a downtrend in the precious metals market, with gold prices fluctuating and falling back. Starting this week, due to the lack of significant new fundamental news driving the precious metals market, gold traders will focus on external markets, most of which are in a bullish trend.
U.S. Treasury yields edged up slightly while competing asset classes such as stocks have led the U.S. stock index to reach or approach historical highs. These external factors have triggered technical selling in the gold market.
Furthermore, the comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker, expressing his fundamental forecast including one more rate cut before the end of the year, continue to weigh on non-yielding assets.
Hawk emphasized the necessity of ongoing assessment, stating, "If everything unfolds as expected, I believe a rate cut before the end of the year is appropriate."
However, he also left room for adjustments based on new economic data, noting, "Regardless of how the data evolves, I think it is quite likely that there will be either two rate cuts this year or no cuts at all... We will still rely on the data."
Hawk believes the current policy rate, which has been stable for nearly 11 months, remains effective in maintaining restrictive conditions to bring inflation back to target levels and mitigate upside risks.
His projections include a slowdown in economic growth but above trend levels, a mild increase in unemployment rates, and a gradual return of inflation to target levels, which he describes as a "long glide".
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