During deflation investors prioritize investment-grade bonds, defensive stocks (those of consumer goods companies), dividend-paying stocks, and cash.
Current asset flows, including the slide in oil indicates this regime allocation is in play (see attached image - below)
In terms of XAU:
- It has already been repriced higher after less-hawkish comments from Powell. The new rate of change (lower) can now be established for the overall down trend
- Going into DEFLATION, your gold is likely to be “deflate” in price because the logic is: hard times cause people to sell their assets (gold, silver etc.) to make ends meet
- There is a greater incentive for people who understand what's happening (like us!) to shot XAU at these higher prices or get in cash/bonds in order to buy the dip in equities down the road once Fed policy actually hints towards loosening.
The current narrative around interest rates is “higher for longer” = still no signal they will stop hiking which = it's still valid to look for shorts on XAU and stocks
Current asset flows, including the slide in oil indicates this regime allocation is in play (see attached image - below)
In terms of XAU:
- It has already been repriced higher after less-hawkish comments from Powell. The new rate of change (lower) can now be established for the overall down trend
- Going into DEFLATION, your gold is likely to be “deflate” in price because the logic is: hard times cause people to sell their assets (gold, silver etc.) to make ends meet
- There is a greater incentive for people who understand what's happening (like us!) to shot XAU at these higher prices or get in cash/bonds in order to buy the dip in equities down the road once Fed policy actually hints towards loosening.
The current narrative around interest rates is “higher for longer” = still no signal they will stop hiking which = it's still valid to look for shorts on XAU and stocks
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How I'm making sense of today:
Jobs data is really just going sideways ... key take away is that the job market is not worsening which marginally increases the odds of a 50bp hike in February
Next Thursday's jobs data is now the focus... I still think we could rally into Wednesday (FOMC) before the larger selloff begins
Jobs data is really just going sideways ... key take away is that the job market is not worsening which marginally increases the odds of a 50bp hike in February
Next Thursday's jobs data is now the focus... I still think we could rally into Wednesday (FOMC) before the larger selloff begins
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Based on fundamental developments (see attached image), I'm expecting price to continue rallying into next Wednesday (FOMC)
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Short idea proved to be valid on the back of inflation print, which I believe is not that relevant. The Fed is focused on Jobs more than CPI, PPI etc.
If price stabilizes today (likely will), expecting the market to offer 1825 again as a wick hunt and then for XAU to roll over.
If price stabilizes today (likely will), expecting the market to offer 1825 again as a wick hunt and then for XAU to roll over.
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Potential trade idea for tomorrow (the key is Powell's press conference)
NOTE: If tomorrow is a surprise 25bp hike or if Powell is excessively dovish this trade is invalid as XAU will likely shoot higher on the back of these developments.
NOTE: If tomorrow is a surprise 25bp hike or if Powell is excessively dovish this trade is invalid as XAU will likely shoot higher on the back of these developments.
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The market is waiting for tomorrow’s Jobs data to make its move. Possible trade setups for tomorrow:
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Nice move overnight. As long as jobs come in within expectations I'll be looking to add more shorts
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ECB and the Fed are worried about services inflation - especially after initial claims were WAY lower than expected; forcing them to remain Hawkish
Which means lower XAU price to come
Which means lower XAU price to come
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This trade should ideally be a TUESDAY event based on fundamentals; if the data comes out a particular way the trade will be less valid.
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as long as price doesn't melt overnight, we should be good to go for tomorrow's short
Tomorrow's JOBS # is the final piece of the puzzle; we'll know what's going on once the dust settles.
But if the criteria (see image) is met, I'm definitely interested in going long into next Wednesday (FOMC).