jonlorquet

Long on Gold Long Term, Cup and Handle, Symmetrical Triangle

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FX_IDC:XAUUSD   黄金现货/美元
Gold has spent the last decade forming a cup and handle, and we just broke out. This cup has taken a decade to form, and the handle more than a year and a half. The cup formed between September 2011 and July 2020, and the handle formed between August 2020 to Feb 2022.

The handle of the cup and handle pattern has been a multi year symmetrical triangle consolidation continuation pattern. When these multi year consolidations form, we can expect the moves to be reliable and persistent, but can also take longer than we would like to reach the price target. Note that at the time of this writing gold’s technicals are behaving perfect even in the midst of Ukraine Russia war. The war itself is the reason for Gold’s recent push. Gold broke out and rose right up to the previous high but did not break it. We can expect gold to consolidate a little here, but move up to the triangle target around the $2170’s, and then ultimately move to the target of the cup and handle pattern around the 2730’s.

At the time of this writing Inflation is raging, almost 10 handle, war has broken out between Russia and Ukraine, and we look to be entering a commodity super cycle, and possibly bursting the bubble in the equity markets.

Gold is a long term buy and hold.
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