XAU USD - write up to private analysis Jan 2023

2023年1月28日

Scenario (I)
This scenario is a strong opportunity for price to continue climbing against market structure (left) reveals the pattern has not yet completed.

• The first reason for this is due the technical pattern not yet providing a clear completion (in case of a bearish move, choose scenario II). Where the Technicals align at the market close of 27/1/23 - this reveals price action forming in the two week candles formed which net off on a daily level (review Daily I) - expect price to swing over between a range of (high) 1950-1910 (low).
  
• Back to the weekly Technicals - using the infinity line of best fit - price will use this as a measure of under/over value subject to the high, low curve of the current market structure (using higher timeframe e.g. minimum Weekly, best case Monthly). The current high probable scenario for the market completion is reach 2010-2016+ as a minimum before a fresh pivot would be required to align back to a strong point within price action (to be anticipated).
  
• 14th March - 18th April shows a strong month of price action forming - where this is now a PCP or FL Supply to react from. In the bullish case - the price will require a reactive wick sell, before purchasing and or strong confirmation aligning to a break of curve (using four hour, eight hour and daily) to confirm. This zone at present cannot be ignored as it's looking back one year in the past and formed the All time high.
  

(Daily I)


Scenario (I) - The full picture


Weekly sell opportunity - (II)
This opportunity is probable using the criteria below; - please refer to the video analysis and review the updated schematic below.

• where price rejects the lower WK FL zone as a second tap, creating a lower high - use the weekly candle setups where 'indecision' candles are present and have just formed (week ending 27/01/2023).
  
• price will look to react at the top of the FL Demand zone, the reason being at present - is down to two distinct reasons;
  I. 5/12, 12/12 - 2022 these two weeks have a strong indecision candle and a stronger price action pattern within the structure of the market.
  II. Looking back 3 weeks (labelled) - is the net imbalance of the pivot (II.i).
  The re-loading zone will require a rejective structure first - as price encounters this zone of interest as an arrival zone - this will need re-assessing.
  
  
• Price can look to create a continuation pattern still, removing the market structure (left) looking towards a $1980-2000 before rejecting (use confirms on daily, four hour) for a risk perspective offering an adjusted measure to sell.
  

(II.i)


Sell opportunity (II)



XAG USD - to note is at an interesting zone for reference.
Monthly TF