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MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM PART 3.5 STILL TOTAL CONVICTION

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HEADER - I have total conviction of bull route, but I am also open-minded to the opposite outcome. In other words, I have total conviction but am easily swayed if the facts change. For my methodology, fact is price action.

SUMMARY - Bulls dropped the ball for the strongest route, but is still favored to complete the second fastest route to 1900-1910 by 12/30 to 01/03. However, we are reaching a very key decision point because, in the short term, bears have formed a "ready to be perfect" 36-day short. So in theory bears SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MOVING TO 1740S by this Wednesday's U.S. markets close. That said, I have total conviction in bull outcome AT THIS MOMENT IN TIME. Why? Because regressive trend/momentum from 36 to 600 days say that the "36-day perfect short" is a fake out. We will know soon.

DETAILS - See previous posts for background on how we got here. These hi-lights are the two most likely outcomes. At this point bulls favored 4:1, with no other realistic outcome to entertain. This chart is the IRLT for everything under 72 days. The arrows are bear out come for those waves. The bold paths are what IRLT engine is most likely at this time.

STRATEGY - Long first bold box, exit 1900 around 12/30.

NOTES 1- I will add some soon after posting.

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NOTES 2 - Bear odds and outcomes:
1) Because of the trend/momentum for from 36 to 72-days, the value for the bear trade seems to be AFTER 12/27 should it take that route.
2) From a short term stand point, bears have "dropped the ball" twice since 12/13. If price follows bull hilight next 48 hours, it's basically over for bears.
3) Meanwhile, bulls still have 1 more window to go before 12/23.

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NOTES 3 - What has changed since late Friday.
1) Bulls are still favored to move to 1900 by end of December.
2) The shape of that move determines HOW QUICKLY BULLS GET TO 1970.
3) At this point, there should be a move to 1825 after 01/04 FED minutes release.
4) After which the move to 1970 completes before 01-19.

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NOTES 4 - Entry, exit, and holidays.
1) My entry long plan, has been the same for quite some time. Long on 12/22.
2) Obviously, dialing down the aggressiveness, bc beyond 1910 is still big question for January.
3) The blue box is a holiday.
4) This updated route allows us avoid dealing with adjustments for 01/03 holiday.

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NOTES 5 - If price follows bear route.
1) I don't have a plan to short on 12/22 right now.
2) Current regressions suggest waiting for 12/28 or 12/29 to short the "waterfall" scenario.

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1) if you've been reading me for some time, what I do is really boring for much of the time
2) that is I map price for months just to wait for a specific moment
3) so in that sense there's maybe 3-4 trades per year I commit to (but when I do, I commit SUPER AGGRESSIVELY AND THEN WATCH PRICE 20 HOURS A DAY)
4) we are approaching such a moment on within 60 hours from now
5) what I've found to be true with this methodology is that price action MUST MATCH THE FORECAST OR SPECIFIC OUTCOMES
6) so that means that, even though I switched from bearish to "PIVOT IS IN' in early December
7) ... and have been forecasting a super bullish 12/23-01/20 window and still have "total conviction",
8) that conviction changes if price action does not follow through, especiallly in super critical moments
9) the first one was missed late Friday to Monday US open for bulls (that was for 1970 in January outcome)
10) the second one is yesterday close to today's close
11) while bulls are favored to hit 1820 next 12 hours, they also NEED IT TO HAPPEN
TO MAINTAIN CURVES IN BREAK OUT POSITION
12) if this route is taken, 1860 is automatic by next Wednesday and 1900-1910 should clear by end of 12/30 AND
14) 1970 scenario is 60/40 for 01/1-01/20 (with respectable correction after 1900-1910)
15) with all that said, my long entry is THURSDAY 12/22 BEFORE NY MARKETS CLOSE
16) I will execute with GC CALLS, WITH 30-50% OF T ENTRY IN GC 1810 12/30 CALLS
17) obviously plan to take money off the table at 1860 (this should be late Friday if early, Wednesday morning if late)

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NOTES 7 - 1815.xx spike 10.05 AM ET TUESDAY. I FORGOT TO SAY THIS:
1) First, almost there with the spike.
2) If you look at the chart, the call is 1820 AND THEN HOLD 1807-1820 for THE REST OF TUESDAY AND ALMOST ALL OF WEDNESDAY.
3) That is all of the 3rd box in bull route.
4) This "holding" is MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE SPIKE ITSELF.
5) Prices higher than that is good for bull route odds, but it would shift the boxes a bit and possibly introduce more 2-way vol in the run up.
6) I am working on more specific chart just for 12/22-12/30 to adjust for the holiday on 12/26.
7) I don't know what the exact hours are but in this situation it's either of:
a) closed Friday afternoon all the way to 12:00-12:30 PM Monday 12/26 or
b) opens Sunday 12/25 (NEW YORK TIME), closes again at midnight, and reopens 5:00 PM 12/26.
8) in either scenario, that window is roughly 19 hours SKIPPED
9) we will deal with this exact situation again for 01/02 holiday
10) FWIW, it will look like this:

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NOTES 8 - Meanwhile in bear town, another look at 1G from early this month:

MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM PART 1G, TRADE EXECUTION

For chart above:
1. Not saying much, but it did hit all those boxes.
2. So?
3. So the bear trade which I have at 10% or less now, is not 0%.
4. And that 10% can still move to minority favorite (most likely, but less than 50% vs field) if price swings down hard.
5. THAT ALSO MEANS WE WILL SOME BUT NOT A LOT OF INSURANCE.
6. For me, it's one 1800 put on entry just in case.
7. How you do it, obviously up to you.

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8. TYPO ... WE WILL NEED SOME BUT....

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NOTES 9 - Last window for bears to show up strong:

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9:28 AM ET 12/21, ONE DAY FROM LONG ENTRY, no new high nover night
1) bear route odds have actually increased a bit, to 3/16, not significant but a bit telling
2) again, that 3/16 can move up significantly if 18-07-1810 doesn't hold for another 16 hours or so
3) is it really that important?
4) yeah, because we need a specific set of regressions to "stack in rally mode", and
5) while that is what is developing, it's not ready to "survive a strong test"
6) meaning in about 16-20 hours, it would be in a stack that not only survives a sell-off, BUT ALSO PRODUCE A HARD REVERSAL SPIKE BACK UP
7) so for example if it sells off in next 16 hours, then 1787 or something would get hit,
8) but the reversal up WOULD NOT BE IN RUNAWAY MOMENTUM...
9) it would be 1833 (at best) and then get rug pulled
10) I've said this before, but gold prices (and I guess other prices as well, to a different degree and particular behaviors) act like...
11) A TUG OF WAR WHERE YOU GET PENALIZED FOR HESITATION
12) in short, nothing to talk about for another 24 hours
13) as of right, entry looks like around noon tomorrow

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14) at the same time though, odds of a higher a high next week has also increased
15) was 1900 ceiling yesterday morning, now looking like 1915-1920 possible, but
16) that's all from me today

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17) forgot one thing, higher high today is 2:1 right now, but not significant (1824-1830 or so)

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FOR CHART ABOVE:
1) ignoring 3/16 (or less) bear out-come, there's only two legit outcomes left
2) the orange one is current path IF NO NEW HIGH TODAY
3) the gray one will be favorite if we GET NEW HIGH (1824-1833) AND IT HOLDS FOR 12 HOURS before check down
4) while odds favor a new high today 2:1, the gray route is still an underdog to orange route at this time

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WED 12.20 8.00 PM UPDATE
1. 15 min bars have me stumped right now as to what it wants to do.
2. Let's just wait to morning.

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3. I only say that because I have conflicting signals now that will clear up in the morning. Good night.

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WED 12.20 9:05 PM UPDATE - This is what I think is going on.
1. take this with some sea salt, but it looks like we are going higher first
2. I didn't foresee this coming at all, so I don't know what to make of it
3. my guess is 1830s first, THEN CHECK DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
4. so the numbers we are expecting tomorrown SHOULD shift upwards 5-15 pts
5. no change in our plans, except that we would likely be taking gray route above as opposed to orange route

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6. what I meant when I said I didn't foresee it going up tonight was, after the drop from 1824-25 this morning, bulls should have stalled
7. but they haven't stopped yet, so we'll see

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MOMENTS LATER AT WALMART....
1. the unthinkable/ridiculous in this situation?
2. would be staying at 1818-ish the entire time until 6 pm tomorrow

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THURSDAY 12/21/22, 12:10 AM ET, DAY OF ENTRY LONG
1. after meshing out all the kinks in the waves, looks like old plans did not change
2. so 1820-ish will hold here, and we will check down tomorrow into the PM
3. I am looking for 1800, maybe 1795 entry (as I have been for quite some time)
4. I think entry will be 12:00 PM TO 8 PM ET, with 3 PM to 6 PM being more likely
5. I do not plan to publish a 3.6 UPDATE, bc the chart is coming out almost exactly as 3.5, so what's the point?
6. if you replay chart at top, we stuck to forecast on first 3 boxes, and
7. entry tomorrow is near bottom of 4th box (bold one)
8. as it stands now, my expectation is forecast hold through 6th box, with the 7th box being just a bit off
9. I will reassess if things change

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12/21, 1 AM. Replay 1G, I can't disprove this move right now, and it's annoying tf out me:

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1. it's going to start dropping now
2. I will make entry tomorrow
3. my instincts say more insurance is needed
4. why?
5. the one thing I am adamant about is WE WILL GET A BIG MOVE
6. I intend to cash it in whichever way it will go

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7. to be 100% clear, odds favor bull route significantly
8. I am just getting that sick feeling in my gut that says more insurance

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1:24 AM
1. I got a fantastic way to handicap it
2. will discuss prior to entry in later today

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9:14 AM ET 12-21 at 1808-ish: FREEZE EVERYTHING, I HAVE ENTRY SHORT SINCE 1812
1. The setup I was looking for in the waves DID NOT MATERIALIZE COMPLETELY.
2. SO I DO NOT HAVE A REASON WHY 1795-1800 WILL HOLD.
3. I HAVE REASON TO BELIEVE 1765-1775 GETS HIT BEFORE END OF FRIDAY
4. THIS LONG SETUP IS DEAD
5. END OF OF POST

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HERE IS 3.6: