Gold Weekly Analysis

Weekly: We can clearly see that the pair has failed to break above the resistance at 1207- 1215, with multiple touch on the resistance and being rejected with strong selling pressure. In the previous weeks, the pair has failed to retest the upside and subsequently challenged the downside at 1183 level. However the pair has failed to break below as it found some level of support at that region. To get a closer look, we need to look for more detailed in the lower TF for more confirmation.

Daily: Looking closer in the daily chart, we can see that the pair is contained within a daily range 1190 -1215 level. After a months (23/8 - 28/9) of consolidation, the pair has finally broken out of the range on Thursday with a strong Bearish Marubozu candlestick. Following the bearish leg to 1183, the pair has quickly bounce upwards to retest the bottom of the range at 1190 region. However, the rejection seems to be limited thus I would be expecting the pair to continue to retrace higher once more to confirm the break of the range.
In addition, the top of the range is also the 50% fib level of the latest Bearish Swing. This indicates that the pair upside move have been capped at the resistance of the range at 1215 level.
Things to lookout for: A rejection on the bottom of the range would confirm the breakout and expose the pair to another bearish leg towards 1160 level. Alternatively, if the pair failed to confirm the break, the pair could rebound back into the range and continue its consolidations.