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MQP-IRLC-003 CPI EXTREME VOL (AS OF WED 9:30 PM)

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HEADER - It's morphing just a bit. I am trying to give you my updates as often as I can from now through noon on Friday.

SUMMARY - The curves shifted up. So I added. But I still think the best entry is about 3 AM THURSDAY (or 5 hours and 30 min from now)

DETAILS - See previous posts linked below for background. I will add notes as often as I can.

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NOTES 1) Roughly same curves but boxes changed a bit.
a) so it's really hard for price to break 1886 next (first box)
b) it cannot get far even if it did
c) IT WILL CHECK DOWN AT LEAST ONCE BY 2-3AM (secondbox)
d) the blue curve MUST CHECK DOWN AT LEAST ONCE BEFORE EXPLOSIVE MOVE UP
e) the structure of the curves imply LESS VOL AFTER 1950 but so far not by much
f) so instead of checking down to 1850 (after 1950), it's 1860 now
g) anything higher than 1875 AFTER 1950 IS HARD IMAGINE BECAUSE OF PRICE ACTION THIS MORNING

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NOTES 2) 2:35 AM ET
a) I keep getting confused w/ CT and ET hours
b) so market opens 9:30 AM ET not 7:30 AM
c) but CPI release IS 8:30 AM ET (7:30 AM CT) so 1 hour ahead of market open
d) anyway, it's 1880.xx right now
e) my math says it can go to 1878 in 90 minutes
f) I'm going to bed and saving some ammo for the morning in case of shenanigans

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7:33 AM 1888
1) on time 3 min after CPI
2) let's see how we pan out today
3) as always trail stops esp if you are short term

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8:04 AM sorry confused with time again
1) still 26 min UNTIL CPI, hehe
2) I tried to search for it, nothing came up, realized I was early

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8:10 AM BOXES NEED UPDATE AGAIN
1) for chart at top:
2) we are about finished with 3rd box now
3) 4th box starts now
4) top of 4th box should be 1928
5) no change to 5th box

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8:37 1895 Im sorry if your stop got hit with the stick save.
1) I didn't see it on my end
2) I use short term options so my stop don't get hit
3) that's just a matter of strategy
4) but if you were watching, you had to have conviction to stay with it
5) and I trusted my methodology, with insurance, that's all I can say
6) so it dropped to 1891 while I typed this
7) the techs on my end aren't influenced by the vol just now
8) so they same thing slowly, slowly to NY OPEN first before moving up hard

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8:47 AM ET if you replay previous draft 002 link below....
1) the spike down was within that box for draft 002, but price had went above it
2) my techs didn't catch it, but Elliot wave theory said I should keep the floor at 186u
3) this is very technical and ultimately unknowable, but
4) I believe short term puts as hedge is the best insurance to stay with your conviction

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Typo: 1868 not 186u

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9:23 AM, 7 min before market opens, 1890, but from 1902
1) my techs still say the same, slow to market open and 1928 (but maybe just 1920, we will see) by 11 am
2) followed by 15-20 correction and then 1950 tonight
3) BUT, I don't know if it will take all the way to midnight,
4) price action has shortened the all the curves under 24 hours to say top should be before 6pm
5) BUT, we are also getting A LOT MORE IN BETWEEN VOL THEN CAN BE EXPECTED
6) so it follows that more inbetween vol should bend the curves out to midnight again some time later
7) that's how I see it right now
8) and 1892 as I type and 9:29 AM, still complete conviction in 1950 before 1 AM Friday

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9:33 AM I JUST REALIZED SOMETHING I SHOULD'VE SEEN:

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a) for chart above:
b) so those are the boxes remaining
c) I said earlier that we should move the next box's time up because it seemed like we are moving early, and we did
d) but I am sure the top of that channel will give THAT QUICKLY, we MAY BE STUCK UNDER THAT line which 1900-1905 the rest of NY SESSION to 4:00 PM ET
e) THAT WOULD BE FINE FROM WHERE I STAND, we would be on time for 1950 by 1 am with the same boxes we had

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f) in fact, if you replay chart at top...
g) I think that move early may have been partially caused by the stick-save vol,
h) now it's sticking to trend (top of 3rd box) again

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9:54 1880.xx I still have conviction because we are on time for draft 003 (this draft), with that said
a) I have enough insurance if this doesn't work out
b) thats all I can say for now

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9:59 AM, the third box needs to hold here for us to be realistic
a) and it's holding uncomfortably
b) so as I said moments ago, I think that area under the middle dashed line of the double channel...
c) is the ceiling until 1 HOUR AFTER MARKETS CLOSE
d) so that is to say 1905 is the ceiling to 5PM ET, during which we have standard 1 hour daily break before 6 PM reopen
e)

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e) I also do feel better that we closed the gap for GLD now bouncing up
f) I have my insurance on so I am not expecting anything special until at least 4:30 PM
g) with the majority of the action from 6PM ET to 1 AM Friday
h) so no comments from me until the after noon
i) Im annoyed with the unexpected vol, but I want to be clear that this trade isn't a scalp
j) when it's a scalp, I will state that it's a scalp

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10:08 AM ET LAST NOTE BEFORE 6PM ET
1) so what we just had was a tripple-twist for the waves under 24 hours
2) meaning down-up-down
3) we have a small shot of breaking above 1888 in 90 minutes, so by 11:40PM
4) but overall odds say maybe not until 12:45 PM
5) so from here to 1904 is going to be a zigzag dog fight...
6) good luck with your trade...
7) and just like that we just hit 1888 again

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8) I didn't expect it for another 90 min
9) my position on price action until 4:30 PM ET DOES NOT CHANGE
10) swing city and hold at 1905
11) again, good luck with it

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10:42 AM 1889, from 1-min bars
1) looks like bears want to retest 1881 again
2) if they do, it should hold
3) in this patteren, they usually try a third time with less conviction

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11:05 AM
1) if bulls hold 72 min wave trend for another 40 min...
2) meaning if they hold trend since 72 min ago
3) break bear trend significantly
4) we are talking hour to hour basis

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11:44 AM ET, 1993, SUPER CRITICAL LEVEL
1) if bulls hold 1993 for another 150 minutes , or until 2:15 PM ET...
2) that should enough to reset all of the curves in our favor and in theory....
3) deliver us the outcome we want by 11 pm tonight to 1 am tomorrow
4) but bears have one more card to play in 150 minutes that can stop us
5) oh man I am nervous... I hope that's the good nervous, but I never know anymore...

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THIS POST HAS ENDED: HERE IS MOST UPDATED ONE, 004: