I thought it would start a decent move up. I thought Gold will really start to overperform SPX. Well the case is not exactly that. At least not yet.
- The spike two months ago got blocked at key resistance. Stocks were bought, and frankly speaking from a bird view Gold has not been doing much. (OK, it did some correction from the top.)
- Price is back below Kijun, but still above Kumo. Tenkan is above Kijun, but both Kijun and forward Kumo are flat. -> the ratio is neutral
- Heikin-Ashi still has some bearish bias (means the system still shows SPX performs better over gold), but the candles are small, and while haDelta/SMA3 is below zero, it could not really continue lower (no bearish momentum gain either)
- EWO ticks down towards zero, but it is still in bullish territory. It also shows lack of momentum.
- MACD points slightly down, but the line values are still above zero. Watch for an increase in histogram!
All in all, despite the big downtrend was broken, Gold still could show up a massive, trending outperformance over SPX. In fact the ratio is in the middle of a horizontal trading range, and looks neutral.
Key levels for a bullish breakout are obvious: Kijun Sen (26 weeks average) and the horizontal trend channel top.
My focus is still on a bullish spread strategy. Also my portfolio is being positionned in that way: accumulating metals (mainly gold) vs underweight equities or outright short $ES
- The spike two months ago got blocked at key resistance. Stocks were bought, and frankly speaking from a bird view Gold has not been doing much. (OK, it did some correction from the top.)
- Price is back below Kijun, but still above Kumo. Tenkan is above Kijun, but both Kijun and forward Kumo are flat. -> the ratio is neutral
- Heikin-Ashi still has some bearish bias (means the system still shows SPX performs better over gold), but the candles are small, and while haDelta/SMA3 is below zero, it could not really continue lower (no bearish momentum gain either)
- EWO ticks down towards zero, but it is still in bullish territory. It also shows lack of momentum.
- MACD points slightly down, but the line values are still above zero. Watch for an increase in histogram!
All in all, despite the big downtrend was broken, Gold still could show up a massive, trending outperformance over SPX. In fact the ratio is in the middle of a horizontal trading range, and looks neutral.
Key levels for a bullish breakout are obvious: Kijun Sen (26 weeks average) and the horizontal trend channel top.
My focus is still on a bullish spread strategy. Also my portfolio is being positionned in that way: accumulating metals (mainly gold) vs underweight equities or outright short $ES
