Just watch what's happening with commodities at the ending bear market...
The initial rally is followed by a consolidation ( pennant, raising triangle etc), but price cannot really drop and it produces the same length of rally as before.
Watch the similarities with oil 2009... I wouldn't be surprised if gold goes above 1400....
And who will buy it? The top calling shorts with their short coverings....
To your question "And who will buy it?" and you answer yourself: "The top calling shorts with their short coverings"..
I could not agree more. But that's not all. A lot of bulls were taken by surprise too and are behind the curves. Me for one. About a month ago I took a hedge for about 50%. "There got to come a pullback soon" Thanks to darth.stocks (that at the time was more bullish than me) I immediately reduced the hedge by 50%. For that I'm grateful and can't thank him enough. The remaining 25% hedge has followed me since then. Somehow it seemed there was never a pullback big enough for me get back to the position I originaly had.
If you are lucky you ride it with a small position. If you are not lucky you watch the rally from the sidelines.
If you are dumb you start a "revenge short" to get some money from the young bull for the missed opportunity . And then you will lose everything.
THere are a very few people who can let his winners run. They are making the real money in this business. I'm trying to hold my followers in position.
Let's look at daily or weekly instead. Ooops very high there too. Monthly then. OK very high but please look in the chart for how long gold can ride with very high numbers on stoch....or low numbers for that matter. Several years and this one has just started.
There is a lot of extra activities goings on in Comex such as for insurance and hedging purposes. Especially around cyclical tops and bottoms. It's more of arbitrages than actual sales but they are of course booked as Commercial Sales on Comex. futures market, real and/or synthetic
When even the bulls are pessimistic the sentiment is low. How then do you recognize a true bull?? All the surprises will come to the up side. That is a bull
"Irrational exuberance" is Greenspeak at its' finest.Let's analyze what he is saying. He is saying the market is irrational. For that statement he needs a rationale. Why is the market irrational? The rationale here is the word exuberance. It's like saying the girl is enormously pregnant. You can't be enormously pregnant. Either you are pregnant or not. You can't use the word exuberance as a rationale to irrational. That would be a circular proof. You would be using the statement as a proof of the statement. Like God exists because he exists. Greenspeak at its finest. May I say pure hogwash.
OK with that out of the way. Lets talk Blackrock and IAU. It was not lack of physical (gold) supply that forced Blackrock to suspend it's trading (buying) IAU. It actually was lack of IAU's shares. The emitter of IAU-shares could not sell any more shares because they didn't have any more to sell. The emitter needs to buy more gold first and there is a time lag for that to happen. At least that is the explanation I have heard. Too bad for Blackstone because I believe they truly wanted more IAU's. Why? Look for your self. Btw extracting triangle has its name because it's both expanding and contracting at the same time. Expanding to the up side and contracting to the down side. Thus a bullish formation